Economic roundup: Job growth slows on heels of worst quarterly GDP ever recorded
People are getting back to work, but not at the pace experts are projecting for the economy, tangible consumer metrics and other intangible household conditions to improve quicker.
Just a small fraction of expectations, private sector employment increased by just 167,000 jobs from June to July, according to the July ADP National Employment Report, which is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
“The labor market recovery slowed in the month of July,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.
“We have seen the slowdown impact businesses across all sizes and sectors,” Yildirmaz said in a news release that accompanied the report’s availability on Wednesday.
Comerica Bank chief economist Robert Dye added this perspective in an alert distributed later on Wednesday.
“The weaker-than-expected July data from ADP tempers expectations for the official payroll numbers for July to be released Friday morning,” Dye said. “Consensus expectations were at 1.5 million for July payroll gains. We will revise our expectations down to 500,000 with a very wide uncertainty band around that number.”
The soft employment readings arrived on the heels of confirmation about how much the U.S. GDP declined during the second quarter. Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke recapped that information from federal officials in a blog post pushed online Monday.
“The economy shrank 33% in the second quarter as a result of the lockdowns and reduced spending and investment, especially in April. It was the worst quarterly decline in the history of the GDP data, which started after World War II,” Smoke wrote.
“As the months progressed through the quarter, spending has been recovering. It has been especially strong in durable goods like cars and furniture,” he continued. “Incomes have been boosted thus far by fiscal stimulus, but we’re already seeing the impact dissipate as incomes declined in June. The Q2 decline leaves real GDP down 9.5% for the year, which was a record decline.”
Meanwhile, federal lawmakers continue to negotiate terms of another stimulus package. Terms of the CARES Act expired at the end of July; most notably the additional $600 weekly unemployment insurance benefit from the federal government.
“In my view, the fundamental disagreement is the scope and depth of the problem and its solution. This is the greatest crisis America has faced in 75 years economically, in a hundred years health-wise. We believe it needs a big, bold solution,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Tuesday.
“They are still wrapped in this idea that the government shouldn’t do much and leave it to the private sector. And it just doesn’t work. They’re also not unified. They admit that there are a large number of the Republicans in the Senate will not vote for anything. And we don’t exactly know where Donald Trump is. He says a different thing every day,” Schumer continued.
“But we’re still slogging through step by step by step, and we’re making progress. It’s not easy, but we’re going to keep at it until we get the kind of bill the American people demand and need, which is a bold, strong bill,” he went on to say.
Also on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell revisited the flashpoint of unemployment benefits.
“Republicans want to keep providing some supplemental federal unemployment. We just don’t think it is remotely fair for the federal government to tax essential workers who’ve kept working every day so Uncle Sam can pay their neighbors a higher salary to stay home,” McConnell said.
“Outside of the Democratic Leader and the Speaker of the House, even Democrats concede it is a bit upside-down to pay people more not to work,” he added.
Potential job growth path
No matter what political persuasion, the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED) is calling on policymakers and business leaders to immediately help those furloughed or unemployed workers train to prepare for the post-COVID-19 economy. The CED sees it as a top priority for recovery before turning to develop a comprehensive, collaborative, longer-term training strategy.
Even prior to the start of the pandemic, the group said skills disruption had challenged the U.S. workforce with emerging technologies, potentially changing which skills are in demand.
“The pandemic’s whirlwind destruction has accelerated the innovative use of technology in the workplace, while at the same time hurt less-educated workers the most,” CED president Lori Esposito Murray said in a news release that accompanied its overall report.
“These two trends threaten to deepen inequality and add to the urgency of the upskilling and training challenge. This challenge needs to be addressed immediately,” Esposito Murray continued.
In response to the immediate demands of the COVID-19 crisis, the CED recommends:
— Tuition support for workers without four-year degrees who are working reduced hours, are furloughed, or have been laid off, to pursue training at low-cost, broad-access institutions, for example, either by direct support to the recipient or to the institution or organization providing the training, similar to Pell Grants. Pell Grants themselves can be temporarily modified or modeled and adjusted for these purposes.
— Grants to strengthen instructional quality and capacity at community colleges that engage in private-sector partnerships.
— Incentivizing employers to upskill their employees through tax credits for additional employer-sponsored training of low- and middle-wage employees — especially workers on reduced hours or furlough — that would qualify the workers for higher-paying roles.
Post-COVID-19, the CED also recommended a comprehensive, collaborative, longer-term strategy to improve both public- private-supported large-scale training efforts. Officials said that strategy should include:
— Public-private collaboration to align new job skills with training programs to improve outcomes for workers and their future employers.
— An information ecosystem to help adults navigate training options.
— Support for the most effective training models to meet the needs of a wide range of workers.
Retirees trying to help
According to the Edward Jones and Age Wave study released on Tuesday, the pandemic is also leaving a significant impact on retirees, too.
The survey showed how much retirees want to help even if they might not be in the full-time workforce any longer.
Reflecting a great deal of generational generosity, Edward Jones reported 24 million Americans have provided financial support to adult children due to COVID-19, and an overwhelming 71% of retirees said they would offer financial support to their family even if it could jeopardize their own financial future.
Despite COVID-19’s negative impact on finances, the survey indicated 67% of Americans said the pandemic has brought their families closer together. The research also revealed that 20 million Americans stopped making retirement savings contributions during the COVID-19 pandemic and only a quarter of working Americans were on track with their retirement savings prior to the pandemic.
“We’ve certainly seen COVID-19’s disruptive force on finances with the pandemic influencing retirement timing and financial confidence,” said Ken Cella, Edward Jones Client Services Group Principal.
“However, this cloud has brought several silver linings in terms of family closeness and important discussions about planning earlier for retirement, saving more for emergencies and even talking through end-of-life plans and long-term care costs,” Cella continued in a news release.