McLEAN, Va. -

In a year that has made it difficult for auto dealers and manufacturers alike to maintain — much less gain — traction with consumers, vehicle residual value retention has been a critical area of performance. The economic stress imposed by a pandemic year has placed renewed consumer focus on value as they make long-term decisions in uncertain times.

That is why auto manufacturers that have continued to focus on long-term value retention have maintained their dominant position across categories in 2020 compared with 2019.

The 2020 Residual Value All-Stars list from J.D. Power recognizes the vehicles that our analysts project to retain the most value over a 36-month period. This year, we have added new categories to the list:  small car, small SUVs and hybrid vehicles. As a result, Honda Civic, Honda Fit, and Mazda CX-30 are new additions to the Mass Market All-Stars list.

Moving through the list, some overall trends are revealed. In general, larger vehicles continue to outperform the value retained by smaller vehicles. Of particular note are the large pickup and midsize SUV categories. Indeed, it seems the larger the vehicles are, the greater their performance in vehicle value retention. Large pickups, for instance, are projected to retain approximately 71% of their value after three years, compared with sedans and small car categories, which hover around 55% in value retention.

This is consistent with the fact that 70% of new-vehicle sales in the United States are made up of large vehicles (i.e., trucks and SUVs). Stress on inventory levels has been further amplified by dramatically improved fuel economy of large vehicles and the reduced cost of gas at the pump. This combination of factors is driving current and projected demand.

We will follow up in a few weeks and recognize the top luxury vehicle performers in this important metric.

The J.D. Power assessment is based on extensive analysis that integrates a wide range of customer surveys — including our well-known Vehicle Dependability Study — along with the deepest wholesale and retail transaction data sets in the industry. This results in an accurate and comprehensive perspective on the variables that will determine residual values of vehicles over the next three years.

What it takes to be a J.D. Power Residual Value All-Star

In general, vehicles that have made the list do well on several competitive performance attributes — even fuel economy. They are thoughtfully packaged with features and benefits for which consumers have expressed a preference and tend to have a compelling design. The underlying characteristics typically engender strong brand loyalty, ultimately resulting in the preservation of future values.

Certain categories of vehicles tend to hold their values better than others. Midsize and large pickup trucks, for instance, carry the highest average residual value among all vehicle segments, with used-car buyers willing to pay more for these trucks — relative to the initial manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) — than they do for sedans.

With that as an introduction, here are the vehicles that have the strongest residual value outlook on the list of J.D. Power 2020 Residual Value All-Stars:

2020 Toyota Tundra — Large Pickup Segment: 71% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

The Toyota Tundra has the highest residual value projection on the all-star list. We expect the Tundra to hold more than 71% of its value after three years. Dependability is one of the most important factors that can help elevate residual values. The Tundra tied the Ford F-150 for the top spot in the large light duty pickup segment in the J.D. Power 2020 U.S. Vehicle Dependability Study. The second-generation Tundra went on sale in the 2007 model year and has been relatively unchanged since receiving only one refresh in the 2014 model year. Despite small changes along the way, and now being in its 14th year of production, the long-in-the-tooth Tundra proves that it still harnesses qualities that keep it top in its class.

Flashback: MY19 Large Pickup All-Star – Toyota Tundra 66%

2020 Toyota 4Runner — Midsize SUV Segment: 68% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

It has been more than 10 years since the Toyota 4Runner was completely redesigned. This year, the 4Runner is selling even better than it did when the model was fresh. Perhaps that has to do with today’s SUV-hungry buyers, but the 2020 4Runner is also a distinctive model. It is rugged and off-road capable, yet it’s spacious and family friendly.

We believe that 4Runner will retain 68% of value during the next three years. Like the Toyota Tundra and Tacoma, the 4Runner also has a reputation for being one of the most reliable and rugged vehicles in its class. The current generation 4Runner is a maverick in the midsize SUV segment, one of the last available body-on-frame SUVs available in the marketplace. Despite being a little rougher around the edges than its unibody construction rivals, the 4Runner has achieved a cult-like following akin to the Jeep Wrangler. These characteristics helped the 4Runner rank highest in the J.D. Power 2020 U.S. Vehicle Dependability Study and keep this old-school style SUV popular in evolving times.

Flashback: MY19 Midsize SUV All-Star – Toyota 4Runner 61%

2020 Toyota Tacoma — Midsize Pickup Segment: 67% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

The 2019 Toyota Tacoma is a classic pickup truck, offering the kind of off-road capability and overall performance demanded by consumers that will allow the Tacoma to hang on to just more than 60% of its value during the next three years. Like its larger sibling (Toyota Tundra), the Tacoma has been synonymous with rock solid reliability and quality which helps keep the midsize pickup popular in the eyes of midsize pickup buyers. Now in its third generation, the Tacoma is better than ever with a slew of trim levels and body configurations there seems to be a perfect fit for almost anyone.

Flashback: MY19 Midsize Pickup All-Star – Toyota Tacoma 64%

2020 Jeep Wrangler — Compact SUV Segment: 63% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

Redesigned for the 2018 model year, the iconic Jeep Wrangler touts improved cabin materials, modern amenities and has a very comfortable ride. Many advanced safety features have been added to elevate its profile in this category. We predict that the Wrangler will retain a residual value of 63% during the next three years. The Wrangler’s rugged retro-like styling continues to evolve with each generation and has allowed it to develop an almost cult-like following. While some competitive models in the compact SUV segment are more refined and provide more modem perks, no other vehicle in production can match the Wrangler’s perfect combination of heritage and off-road capability.

Flashback: MY19 Compact SUV All-Star – Jeep Wrangler 62%

2020 Chevrolet Tahoe — Large SUV Segment: 58% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

General Motors Corp. returns to all-star list with the 2020 Chevrolet Tahoe. The value included in this year’s model has prompted us to project that the Tahoe will maintain 58% of its residual value during the next three years. The 2020 Tahoe pairs some of the old-school SUV traits we’ve talked about in other high-retaining models helping it reach the top of its class. It’s important to note that the Tahoe also ranks highest in the J.D. Power 2020 U.S. Vehicle Dependability Study. The 2020 Tahoe was introduced for the 2015 model year and is now in its sixth and final year of production as the 2021 model year receives a major redesign. The fourth-generation 2020 Tahoe stays true to its roots offering several trim levels and optional equipment in the small but popular large SUV segment.

Flashback: MY19 Large SUV All-Star – GMC Yukon 57%

2020 Mazda CX-30 — Small SUV Segment: 56% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

It’s no surprise this segment has been heating up for some time now and new players such as the Mazda CX-30 for 2020, ranks the highest in our residual value projection with 56%.  Mazda is known for its fun-to-drive dynamics and premium-quality interior. The CX-30 is no exception. Sized between the CX-3 and the CX-5, the new entry brings upscale interior design, superior build and ride quality, sporty steering feel and plenty of standard safety features. Due to its sloping back design, it does suffer from tight rear passenger space and cargo hold. However, compared with others in this segment, the CX-30’s compelling style, great driving dynamics, and six-speed automatic transmission (others have a continuously variable transmission, or CVT) could win hearts easily. A close second place goes to the Toyota C-HR, followed by the Hyundai Venue which is also new for 2020. While C-HR comes with Toyota’s reliability and Venue with more interior volume, CX-30 takes the cake in this year’s residual value leader in the small SUV segment.   

No Flashback, Small SUV was added to the All-Star segment list for 2020.

2020 Honda Insight — Hybrid Car: 58% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

For 2020, we have a new leader in the hybrid crowd with the Honda Insight with an impressive 58% (edging past Toyota Prius at 56% and followed by Hyundai Ioniq at 52%). Insight returns after its debut in 2014 with an all-new styling for MY2019. It’s much improved and even boasts a 2.5-second quicker acceleration to 60 mph than the Prius. Praise continues with the conventional sedan styling that looks more like a Honda Accord, roomy and well-appointed interior and the stellar 52 combined mpg to go with it. Honda Insight also takes advantage of the aging Prius (current model introduced in 2016) and equips lots of standard safety and technology into the vehicle.

Finally, the Insight starts off $1,395 cheaper than the Prius. While the Toyota Prius is crowned with a J.D. Power Best Resale Value award, which highlights Toyota’s long history of reliability and dependability of the Prius model, the Honda Insight steals some spotlight from the Prius with a well-deserved residual value all-star award for 2020.

No Flashback, Hybrid Car was added to the All-Star segment list for 2020.

2020 Honda Accord — Midsize Sedan Segment: 56% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

Honda’s all-star achievement continues with the 2020 Accord at 56% residual value projection, followed by the Subaru Legacy and the Toyota Camry. The combination of quality and value incorporated into this generation Accord is prompting us to project a healthy residual value above a redesigned-for-2020 Subaru Legacy. After a major 2018 redesign, the 2020 Accord remains a relatively fresh in the competitive midsize sedan segment. In fact, Ford and Chevrolet have left the segment completely with their now-retired Fusion and Malibu. Honda’s formula for the Accord remains simple, with a few trim levels and engine configurations available including both traditional internal combustion and hybrid offerings. Now in its 10th generation, the Accord has maintained a solid reputation for its reliability, practicality and also value retention.

Flashback: MY19 Midsize Car All-Star – Honda Accord 60%

2020 Honda Civic — Compact Car Segment: 56% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

The Civic needs no introduction but speaks volume to its strong proposition in the compact car segment as it soldiers on with no big changes for MY2020. Receiving only minor changes last year since its 10th generation introduced in 2016, the Civic continues to lead with a 56% projection vs. Impreza (54%) and Corolla (52%). The Civic has performed very well in retail sales over the years and, for 2020, the front and rear styling of the hatchback and Civic Si receives the same updated styling as the sedan did in 2019.

While 2019 was a busy year of refreshes and redesigns for this segment, 2020 brings two new heavy hitters: Nissan Sentra and Toyota Corolla. Even then, the Civic gets the all-star nod, complemented by winning a J.D. Power Best Resale Value award with the Toyota Prius, tying for first place in the compact car segment.

Flashback: MY19 Compact Car All-Star – Subaru CrossTrek 58%

2020 Honda Fit —- Small Car Segment: 56% J.D. Power Residual Value Projection

The 2020 Honda Fit has aged well going into its last model year. The third-generation Fit started life in 2015 and after Honda announced the discontinuance of the beloved Fit after 2020. It goes out with a bang by not only ranking highest in the J.D. Power 2020 Vehicle Dependability Study as the most dependable vehicle in the segment, but also projecting the highest residual value among its competitors with a commanding 56%.

The Toyota Yaris is the runner-up with a distant 47%. Since the launch of the third generation, the Fit offered impressive cargo and passenger space, sporty acceleration, excellent handing and, lastly, impressive fuel economy any buyer in this segment would want. Pushing itself above its weight has resulted in the highest residual value in its class for three consecutive years.

No Flashback, Small Car was added to the All-Star segment list for 2020.

Conclusion

The importance of used vehicles in the overall automotive market cannot be stressed enough. In the wake of a pandemic that stopped automotive production, the rapid recovery of the used-vehicle market helped fill in gaps to meet demand. As the industry navigates the continued challenges caused by COVID-19, used vehicles remain an integral part of the complex automotive market. Value retention performance—such as the specific make and models represented on this list—will drive consumer choices and should guide the inventory that dealers keep on their lots.

David Paris is senior manager of market insights at J.D. Power Valuation Services. Coming soon, Paris will reveal the J.D. Power 2020 Luxury Residual Value All-Stars list.