CARY, N.C. -

In recent years, an impending wave of off-lease supply was among the top stories in automotive.

Not so much this year.

According to the latest quarterly report from RVI Analytics, there was a 1.8% year-over-year drop in off-lease volume during April, and further softening is expected.

“Given the low supply of new vehicles as a consequence of the COVID-19 shutdowns and most recently the chip shortage, we are expecting the off-lease supply index to decline over the next year,” the firm said in its report.

The RVI Lease Supply Index for 2021 is expected to drop 6.5% from 2020. The firm is projecting year-over-year drops of 9.0% and 10.6% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Then, gains of 5.1% and 17.3% are projected for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

In its recenlty updated 2021 Market Insights & Outlook report, Cox Automotive looked at the “wholesale inflow” volumes by various channels, including off-lease.

In 2018, there were 3.9 million off-lease units. That climbed to 4.1 million in 2019, then hit 4.1 million again in 2020. For this year, that’s expected to decline to 4.0 million, according to the Cox report.

“This is the beginning of a decline in off-lease volume that will contribute to supply constraints within the used market for franchised dealers in 2021,” analysts said.

Lease maturities are expected to remain at 4.0 million in 2022, and then drop to 3.8 million in 2023.

That said, it’s important to note that the 4.1 million lease maturities in both 2019 and 2020 were record highs, Cox said.

Conversely, lease origination volumes (3.3 million) in 2020 were at a more-than-five-year low, while lease penetration dropped from 29.5% in 2019 to 26.6% last year.

“The decrease in the lease penetration rate in 2020 reflected the decline in vehicle sales from the pandemic, but it also likely represented a shift in emphasis from manufacturers with concerns about vehicle values and future performance,” Cox said in the report.

As for this year, the lease penetration rate is expected to climb back to 29%, with 3.8 million leases originated.