TrueCar spots demand adjustment in retail used-car market
In a different take on the pre-owned car market, TrueCar is expecting used-car sales will soften this month, and is actually seeing listing prices decline.
These would seem to suggest an adjustment in demand.
Specifically, the company predicts there will be 3.1 million used-car sales in May, which would be a 19% year-over-year decrease and an 8% decline from April.
Furthermore, TrueCar has seen listing prices decrease on 51% of used vehicles this month.
“This month we’re continuing to see a struggle for supply among the industry; however, we're also now starting to see signs of demand adjusting,” TrueCar lead industry analyst Nick Woolard said in a news release.
“Higher interest rates combined with higher fuel prices present a headwind to demand cooling off, which may explain why average used list prices are decreasing, down 1.6% in May versus April 2022,” Woolard said.
“In terms of price adjustments, compared to the beginning of the month, we are seeing more vehicles being marked down than for the same period last year. This is truer for used where we are seeing over half of our used listings getting a downward price adjustment since the beginning of the month,” he said. “This trend is led by the used full-size vehicle segment.”
In that particular segment, TrueCar data shows 53% of used listings being downwardly adjusted. It was followed by the midsize segment (52%) compact, subcompact and heavy-duty (all at 49%).
Going back to Woolard’s point on interest rates, the average on a used car this month ins 8%, according to TrueCar. Loan terms on pre-owned are averaging 71 months.
Looking at how last month fared, a Cox Automotive Data Point report from May 13 estimated there were around 3.37 million total used-car sales in April. That’s down from an estimated 3.42 million used sales in March and 3.92 million in April 2021, according to the company’s data set.
Cox estimates there were 1.78 million retail used sales, or those originating at a dealership. That’s down from 1.81 million in March and 2.05 million in April 2021.
“The used-vehicle market is much slower this spring than last year,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charles Chesbrough said in a news release. “Vehicle buyers today are facing much higher prices, and there are no stimulus checks to provide some help, unlike last April.”
One somewhat bright spot was certified pre-owned sales. The 223,999 CPO sales in April was a 2.11% improvement over March, according to a Cox Automotive analysis of Motor Intelligence data. Through April, the market has grown sequentially in each month of 2022, Cox said.
Still, CPO sales were down 13.59% year-over-year in April, and year-to-date sales are close to 16% softer. But look for a second-half comeback.
“Sales of CPO vehicles are down nearly 16% year to date and are on trend with the overall used-vehicle market, which is experiencing a weaker spring than expected,” Chesbrough said. “Cox Automotive expects stronger sales activity in the second half of the year to improve CPO sales.”