TrueCar.com: June Sales Forecast Still Off Despite Incentive Rise

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com predicts that rises in automaker incentive spending won't translate into month-over-month gains in new-vehicle sales for June.

Site analysts computed the industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,870 in June. They indicated the sum represents a 1.1-percent increase from May and a 6.2-percent jump from this time last year.

When looking at specific brands, TrueCar.com found the highest per vehicle incentives were offered by Lincoln ($5,395), Volvo ($5,141) and Infiniti ($4,720). The site noted Scion offered the lowest incentives per unit at $794, preceded on the list by Subaru at $1,521 and smart at $1,525.

Despite those incentive figures, the site's June forecast of 985,266 light vehicle sales, including fleet, means a double-digit decline from what automakers enjoyed last month. TrueCar.com figured the sales total to be 10.5 percent lower than the May sales performance.

Still, analysts reminded dealers and other industry companies that their June forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.1 million new-vehicle sales. If that many vehicles move this month, they indicated it would represent a 14.8-percent rise from the mark posted in June of last year.

With June marking the midpoint of the year, TrueCar.com also offered a snapshot of the first half of 2010. Based on the first five months of actual sales and the site's forecast for June, analysts calculated total industry sales will be up 17 percent compared to the first half of 2009.

Meanwhile, TrueCar.com also pointed out the industry average incentive spending per unit will be down 5 percent for the same time period.

"In light of what we have observed to this point in 2010, we are now downgrading our annual forecast from 11.9 million to 11.6," explained Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insight for TrueCar.com.

"The negative impact on consumer confidence caused by the volatility in the financial markets limited what otherwise would have been a more robust recovery so far this year," Toprak continued.

"However, higher sales and lower incentive spending levels compared to the first half of 2009 clearly indicate that consumer demand is getting stronger," he went on to say. "We were able to jumpstart the car, we just don't seem to be able to get it going over 25 mph."

No matter the mixed sentiment, TrueCar.com spotted some brands that have been enjoying tremendous growth. The site specific highlighted the lineup from General Motors.

Analysts have noticed substantial year-over-year sales gains with GMC leading the way at 42.9 percent. Buick followed close behind at 42.5 percent with Chevrolet (40.3 percent) and Cadillac (34.5 percent) turning in solid numbers, too.

All told, TrueCar.com found sales of American vehicles are up nearly 19 percent, which is tops among the identified manufacturing regions of the world. The site said sales for South Korean companies are up 13 percent while improvement for Japanese operations is 12.3 percent. The sales performance for European OEM is 6.2 percent higher.