Edmunds.com Sees Positives within November Sales Projection
Edmunds.com doesn’t think the industry should be alarmed by its November new-vehicle sales forecast that shows month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons going in different directions.
Site analysts believe November new-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to be approximately 865,500 units. That figure represents a 17-percent increase from November of last year. However, it’s an 8.1-percent decrease from October.
Edmunds.com expects November retail sales to be about 700,000 units, down from about 778,000 last month.
As a result, analysts think that November’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate will be 12.2 million, essentially flat from October. They added SAAR for retail sales will be about 9.9 million, down slightly from last month.
The site also mentioned that average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to come in at $2,490 per vehicle sold for November. That amount is $51, or 2.1 percent, higher than what Edmunds.com said OEMs gave out in October, but it’s down $284, or 8.6 percent, from the year-ago figure.
Despite the comparison differences, site officials say they believe the industry should see the overall sales pattern as positive.
“Seasonal fluctuations notwithstanding, we’re seeing some stability and consistency in the marketplace for the first time since the economic downturn,” asserted Edmunds.com senior analyst Jessica Caldwell.
“The automakers have realized that they can achieve profitability at this level of sales, and they seem to be settling into that reality,” Caldwell added.
Edmunds.com also pointed out November has 24 selling days, one more than November of last year. The chart below shows comparisons:
|
Change from November 2009 (Adjusted for more selling days)
|
Change from November 2009 (Unadjusted for more selling days)
|
Change from October 2010 (Unadjusted for fewer selling days)
|
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram)
|
17.3%
|
22.4%
|
-15.4%
|
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury)
|
20.4%
|
25.6%
|
-2.0%
|
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saturn)
|
6.9%
|
11.5%
|
-8.5%
|
Honda (Acura, Honda)
|
11.4%
|
16.2%
|
-13.3%
|
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan)
|
5.4%
|
10.0%
|
-12.4%
|
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)
|
-5.9%
|
-1.8%
|
-9.8%
|
Industry Total
|
12.1%
|
17.0%
|
-8.1%
|
Edmunds.com November 2010 New-Car Sales Market Forecast:
Maker | Total Predicted Units Sold |
Change from November 2009 (percentage) |
Change from October 2010 (percentage) |
Chrysler | 75,900 | + 22.4 | – 15.4 |
Ford | 149,900 | + 25.6 | – 2.0 |
General Motors | 167,900 | + 11.5 | – 8.5 |
Honda | 85,700 | + 16.2 | – 13.3 |
Nissan | 61,100 | + 10.0 | – 12.4 |
Toyota | 131,300 | – 1.8 | – 9.8 |
Maker | Predicted Market Share |
November 2009 Market Share |
October 2010 Market Share |
Chrysler | 8.8 | 8.4 | 9.5 |
Ford | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.2 |
General Motors | 19.4 | 20.3 | 19.5 |
Honda | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.5 |
Nissan | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
Toyota | 15.2 | 18.1 | 15.5 |