STAMFORD, Conn. -
Wholesale values have slowed down sequentially so far in January, but they are still significantly stronger than year-ago levels, according to the latest analysis from RVI Group. And the gains are likely to carry on throughout 2011.
Specifically, based on preliminary data, wholesale values in January are down 3.3 percent from December. A potential cause of this decrease is the winter weather throughout the U.S., RVI suggested.
In fact, RVI vice president Rene Abdalah told Auto Remarketing in an interview on Tuesday that the decrease is believed to be “weather-related” and that there was “not any market change.”
Furthermore, although there was a sequential decline, the year-over-year improvement in January is at 13.6 percent.
“The year-over-year growth is going to remain there,” Abdalah noted, pointing out that the company is projecting that wholesale values for full-year 2011 will climb 5 percent from 2010.
Late in 2011, the degree of wholesale-price improvement is likely to decrease because of high comparables from 2010, he explained. As many may remember, used-car prices were low at the beginning of 2010 and climbed throughout the year.
So what’s driving this year-over-year increase in wholesale values?
“It’s definitely the lack of supply,” Abdalah noted.
Such a trend has been the theme for a while now in the wholesale market, and 2011 doesn’t figure to be much different.
RVI expects used-vehicle supply to dip 17 percent in 2011, according to Abdalah.
December Used-Vehicle Market
Moving on to look at December’s data, there was a 0.2-percent sequential hike (seasonally adjusted) and an 18.4-percent year-over-year gain in the RVI Used Car Price Index.
The year-over-year spike in December was the heaviest increase in seven months, according to RVI. The index had jumped close to 20 percent in May. 
Breaking December down by segment, the most significant decline in wholesale values on a month-over-month basis was in the full-size van category, where used prices were off 2.8 percent.
Sports cars were off 2.3 percent sequentially and values for luxury full-size sedans fell 2.2 percent.
Conversely, luxury coupes showed the greatest month-over-month growth (up 4.5 percent) and minivans were a distant second (up 1.4 percent).
The values in the remaining 14 segments in RVI’s Index either increased or decreased by 1 percent or less.
“It’s all over the place,” Abdalah said, referring to the widespread disparity in month-over-month wholesale changes.
But he pointed out that the many of the segments showing the heaviest moves tended to be luxury or sport (i.e. expensive) segments.
Abdalah said this trend is a reflection of economic circumstances, as demand for these vehicles is low as buyers put off these types of purchases. The same type of trend is seen on the new-vehicle side, Abdalah shared. 
“It’s actually not a good sign,” he stressed. “When demand (for luxury vehicles) goes down, you can attribute that to consumer confidence being low.”
On a year-over-year basis, all segments showed gains. In fact, all were up double-digits except for full-size sedans, whose values jumped 9 percent from December 2009.
The strongest increase was in the subcompact segment (up 27.5 percent).
New-Vehicle Trends
Moving over to the new side of the market, transaction prices in December didn’t change from November when seasonally adjusted. They showed a 0.3-percent year-over-year gain.