Black Book index at new record as experts see retail sales surging
With wholesale values surging each week during the month, it probably comes as no surprise that the Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index for March set a new record.
Black Book reported on Monday that its index reading came in at 141.2, representing an 8.9 point (or 6.7%) increase from February.
Analysts also noted the index currently stands 23% above where it was at this same time last year, right before a record drop due to the start of the COVID-19-related economic closures.
“Wholesale prices continued to increase each week, with an accelerated rate of increase throughout March,” Black Book senior vice president of data science and analytics Alex Yurchenko said in a news release.
“Continuous shortages of used and new inventory, coupled with elevated demand driven by the federal stimulus and an improved labor situation in the last two months, drove wholesale prices to record heights across all segments,” Yurchenko continued.
“This month, most of the car segments led the increases, with the compact car segment increasing by 10 points (7.5% increase) and the mid-size car segment increasing by 9 points (6.9%),” he went on to say.
In a separate statement also released on Monday, Curt Long made several similar assertions after the U.S. Commerce Department released new-vehicle sales data for March. Long is chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions (NAFCU).
“Vehicle sales soared in March to 17.8 million annualized units, continuing a trend of good news for the American economy,” Long said. “Strong fiscal support, more stimulus checks, low-interest rates, better weather, and great March job numbers all contributed to this surge.
“Fleet sales are slow, with GM reporting a 35% decline versus a year prior, but consumer sales have more than made up the difference,” he continued. “The problem in 2021 will be supply, as microchip shortages worldwide have affected many industries and paused production on some Ford and GM lines. Supply issues have not hindered sales yet but could ripple into the summer and fall.
“Overall, NAFCU expects a very strong year for vehicle sales and beginning of the post-COVID recovery,” Long went on to say.
And with sales surging, the Black Book index might remain steady, too.
The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published wholesale average value on 2- to 6-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage and condition.
To obtain a copy of the latest Black Book Wholesale Value Index, go to this website.