CARY, N.C. -

Supply: the topic that has been at the forefront of used-car dealers’ minds for the past few years as quality pre-owned vehicles proved scanty in the lanes.

And as leasing dried up in the years after the 2008 recession, both off-lease and off-fleet vehicles — which had fed the auction lanes in the past — were proving hard to find. But that is all set to change, if recent fleet and lease sales numbers are any indication.

In fact, Auto Remarketing recently spoke with numerous industry analysts, all of whom noted leasing sales volumes were up by double digits.  And it appears volumes may continue increasing as we move into 2013.

As for fleet volumes, Steven Elliott, analyst of North American forecasts at LMC Automotive US Inc., shared that through August, sales were up 17 percent year-over-year.

And with both fleet and lease numbers up, Thomas King, senior director from J.D. Power’s Power Information Network, said that with an expected rise in consumer demand, the two market segments will continue to rise in the future.

“Our expectation is that lease mix will be similar to current levels into 2013, but since overall retail demand will rise, the number of lease sales will rise. Fleet volumes are also expected to rise,” King explained.

Highlighting the rising lease volumes in more detail, Melinda Zabritski, director of automotive credit for Experian Automotive, shared that through the second quarter of 2012, there had been approximately 1.1 million consumer leases.

During the same period of last year, there were just shy of 1 million, making the recent results an 11.3-percent increase.

Analysts from J.D. Power’s PIN shared that through September, the company has recorded 1.77 million lease sales, up from 1.55 million during the same period of 2011. This constitutes 20.4 percent of the total 8.7 million forecasted new-vehicle retail sales through September of this year.

And analysts from ALG shared similar numbers, as well. Eric Lyman, vice president of residual value solutions for ALG, shared that according to R.L. Polk data, there were 1.3 million leases through July.

Last year, the company tracked 1.2 million leases during the same period, marking an 11-percent year-over-year increase.

And as the automotive market continues to improve from recession lows, analysts shared with Auto Remarketing their expectations for lease penetration in the future.

“As a percentage of total financing, leasing has increased slightly year-over-year.  While we may see an increase in 2013, we should see volumes increase as we continue to experience a rebound in the automotive market,” Zabritski explained.

And ALG is predicting a slight “dip” in lease penetration next year, but one that will lead into a more extensive rise.

“ALG is forecasting a slight dip in leasing for 2013 before picking up over the long term,” said Lyman.

“Our forecast shows a steady increase in lease penetration, reaching near-decade highs by 2017,” he added.

Lastly, J.D. Power shared its full-year forecasts, noting that it expects 2012 to close with 2.36 million leases, constituting 20.4 percent of the predicted 11.6 million retail sales. Last year, 2.07 million leases were recorded — 20.1 percent of the total 10.3 million retail units sold.

As for 2013, PIN analysts shared they are predicting 2.48 million leases, constituting 20.4 percent of the expected 12.2 million retail sales.

Japanese OEMS Lead; Emerging Brands See Lease Increases

As for which vehicles have been most attractive to lease customers, Japanese brands top the list, according to Zabritski, with Honda notching the top two spots

The Accord has scored 6.2 percent of the leasing market, with the Civic garnering 4.2 percent.

Next up, the Toyota Camry took 3.2 percent of the leasing pie. And the Blue Oval notched Nos. 4 and 5, with the Fusion (2.6 percent) and Escape (2.4 percent) rounding out the top five list, according to Experian data.

And ALG’s Lyman noted that certain “emerging” Korean brands have seen spikes in lease rates this year, as well.

“Emerging brands like Kia and Hyundai have shown significant increases in residual values,” said Lyman.

“As their sales network adapts to a new environment of high residual values, we expect their lease penetration to increase substantially,” he further explained.

He also noted that since luxury brands tend to have higher lease penetration rates, as new models hit the lots, these rates could spike even more for some lucky brands.

“Luxury brands historically have higher lease penetration rates,” said Lyman. “With the all new ATS being a competitive offering in a high-lease segment and with the redesigned CTS launching next year, we fully expect Cadillac to show a significant increase in the number of leases.”

Fleet Sales Up by Double Digits YOY; 2013 Rates Expected to Rise Even More

According to LMC’s Elliot, year-to-date fleet sales through August (2 million units) were up 17 percent, when compared to the same period last year.

Elliot also explained fleet sales through August have made up about 20 percent of total sales, according to ALG data.

And according to PIN data, the forecasted fleet sales number through September sat at 2.2 million, up from 1.9 million actual sales during the same period of 2011.

The company also expects fleet sales to total 2.7 million by the end of 2012.

But will fleet sales continue to rise as 2013 gets underway?

Elliot predicts that fleet sales will rise by another 4 percent in 2013, with 2.85 million units sold.

PIN data predicts 2.9 million fleet sales next year.

Lastly, Elliot explained which segments and brands are seeing the highest fleet sales numbers this year.

“It depends on the type of fleet. Ford is heavy with commercial fleet. Generally the large conventional segment (Dodge Charger, Chevrolet Impala, Ford Crown Victoria, etc), large pickup, and midsize conventional (Fusion, Malibu, 200, etc) have high fleet volumes,” he concluded.