CARY, N.C. -

There are, quite literally, many moving pieces to J.D. Power Valuation Services’ used-car supply forecast.

But bottom line, don’t fear the “glut.”

Used supply will be likely be lower than pre-virus forecasts in May, higher than pre-virus forecasts in June, then back to pre-pandemic levels in August, the company projects.

Here’s how that shakes out, according to their COVID-19 Valuation Services Update released Friday.

March saw a deferral or removal of approximately 480,000 off-rental, off-lease and trade-in vehicles, compared to what was forecasted before the pandemic, according to J.D. Power Valuation Services (whose data includes vehicles up to 8 years in age).

That number for April is expected to be another 557,000 vehicles.

Granted, the deferred off-rental and off-lease units are likely to hit the market next month and in June, plus supply coming from cuts in rental fleets.

But trade-in volume is expected to see a massive drop through May, which will offset those aforementioned supply bumps.

“This will lead to a roughly 63,000-unit reduction in volume in May, compared with our pre-virus expectations,” said Jonathan Banks, vice president of vehicle valuations & analytics at J.D Power Valuation Services, in a news release.

It is likely that new- and used-vehicle retail sales, however, will get stronger in June, meaning more trade-ins added to the used supply mix.

“Supply expected in June will be 160,000 units above our pre-virus forecast,” Banks said. “By August, supply will likely settle around the pre-virus levels we were observing in February of this year.”

Some more specifics on that supply movement: Before the virus, the combined off-rental, off-lease and trade-in volume for March-June was forecasted at about 1.25 million per month. J.D. Power now projects that sum will be slightly over 1 million per month.

The J.D. Power report also delved into more specifics on the volume of rental deferral/reductions and lease volume by month.

In March, it was at 10,000, then grew to 200,000 for April and is likely to peak at 418,000 for May. Those numbers are expected to drop to 238,000 for June, then 22,000 for July and zero for August.

Some additional context: In an interview Monday, National Auto Auction Association chief executive officer Frank Hackett, citing Banks, said there were 800,000 overflow units on auto auction lots right now, in addition to the volume that is being sold. This illustrates the pent-up supply of cars that will need to be sold, he said.