The jury is still out on how November fared in the overall used-car and certified pre-owned markets, but recent industry analyses paint a clear picture of how the fourth quarter has started.

Beginning with CPO, there have been 2.04 million certified pre-owned vehicle sales through 10 months of the year, according to an analysis of Motor Intelligence data in the latest Kontos Kommentary from ADESA chief economist Tom Kontos.

That’s a 14.1% drop from the same period of 2021 and even 6.8% slower than 2020 figures. Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, year-to-date CPO sales are off 12.6%, Kontos said, citing Motor Intelligence.

In a separate report, also citing Motor Intelligence, Cox Automotive said there were 207,547 certified sales last month, which beat September figures by more than 5,000 units, but trailed October 2021 by more than 9,000 units.

Still, Cox anticipates there will still be about 2.4 million CPO sales this year.

In that report, Chris Frey, who is senior manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, said: “As we enter the holiday season, the Asian brands have historically held 50% share of CPO sales, with European and the Detroit Three making up about 18.8% and 31.2%, respectively.

“Last year, Asian brands slipped to 47% while the others gained about 1.5% of share each. That has turned around so far this year, with Asian makes’ share at 51%, European share flat with history, and Detroit losing 0.8% to history,” Frey said. “With new prices still at record highs and little incentives available, CPO looks in good shape to hit or exceed our 2.4 million estimate.”

Going back to the Kontos report, it also breaks down total used-car sales at dealerships, citing NADA data.

Franchised and independent dealers have combined to sell 21.99 million used vehicles through 10 months of the year, which is 12.7% lower than year-to-date figures through the same period of 2021, the report said.

The 2022 tally is also down 4.3% from 2020 and is 11.3% slower than 2019 numbers.

More specifically, the Kontos report — again, citing NADA — points out that franchised dealers have retailed 11.12 million used cars through 10 months, which is off 13.4% from last year, 5% from 2020 and 13.5% from 2019.

Meanwhile, independents have moved 10.88 million used cars this year, which is off 12.0% year-over-year, 3.4% from 2020 and 9.0% from 2019, the Kontos report said.

In another analysis released earlier this month, Cox Automotive estimated that there were about 2.85 million total used-car sales in October, a figure that also includes private-party sales. In October 2021, there were 3.31 million total used-car sales.

The resulting total used-car SAAR from last month would be 35.0 million, down from 40.7 million in October but up from 33.8 million in September.

Looking specifically at dealers’ used-car sales in October, Cox estimated there were 1.50 million last month, compared to 1.73 million a year earlier.

The resulting SAAR for dealers’ used-car sales would be 18.5 million, compared to 17.8 million in September and 21.3 million in October 2021.

“Rising interest rates are making some used vehicles too expensive, and it is taking some potential buyers out of the market. As rates continue to rise through 2022, demand may take a larger hit and vehicle discounting may need to occur to get buyers able and interested again in purchasing,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charles Chesbrough said in Cox’s report.