IRVINE, Calif. -
Kelley Blue Book today announced the 2011 model-year vehicles projected to retain the greatest amount of their original prices after five years of ownership and much more.
2011 Best Resale Value: Brand
Subaru
2011 Best Resale Value: Luxury Brand
BMW
2011 Best Resale Value by Vehicle Category
Subcompact Car: Honda Fit
Compact Car: Mini Cooper
Midsize Car: Honda Accord
Full-size Car: Ford Taurus
Near-Luxury Car: Lexus IS
Luxury Car: Audi A5
Sports Car: Subaru Impreza WRX
High-Performance Car: Ford Mustang GT
Hybrid/Alt. Energy Car: Volkswagen Golf TDI
Compact Utility Vehicle: Honda CR-V
Midsize Utility Vehicle: Toyota FJ Cruiser
Full-size Utility Vehicle: GMC Acadia
Luxury Utility Vehicle: BMW X5
Hybrid/Alt. Energy Utility Vehicle: BMW X5 XDrive35d
Midsize Pickup: Toyota Tacoma
Full-size Pickup: Ford F-Series Super Duty
Van: Toyota Sienna
Wagon: Subaru Outback
2011 Best Resale Value: Top 10 Models
Audi A5
BMW X5
BMW X6
Honda CR-V
Jeep Wrangler
Lexus GX
Lexus RX
Subaru Outback
Toyota FJ Cruiser
Toyota Tacoma
The breakdown is based on KBB’s analytical and predictive models for new-vehicle values, in addition to economic forecasts.
Basically, the company said its residual values are a reflection of current vehicle data, market conditions for each vehicle, competition in each segment, expectations of the future economy and the combined experience of KBB’s team of statisticians, economists and pricing analysts.
At NRC in San Diego last week, Eric Ibara, director of residual consulting for KBB, spent some time talking to Auto Remarketing about his company’s findings prior to them being made public.
According to Ibara, “The truck segment is up year-over-year. However, we’re concerned about the compact, subcompact and hybrid segments. Our economic forecasts only project a moderate increase in gas prices. The demand won’t be there, so these segments will likely be down year-over-year,” he told Auto Remarketing.
“The good news is there are some excellent bargains on excellent vehicles,” he noted, especially as dealers and automakers look to make room for 2011 models.
As for Chrysler, he said it’s hard to make projections on this company’s lineup because so much of it is expected to be redesigned or introduced to the market.
“At General Motors, the GMC brand is up significantly, including the whole lineup of trucks,” Ibara said. “It’s a spillover effect from the cheaper gas prices.”
Ultimately, he said the company tends to project values in three-year increments and for the next few years, KBB expects values to stay relatively strong.
Residual Forecasts
KBB analysts expect the economy and auto industry to recover at a “snail’s pace” in 2011.
The company forecasts that gas prices will more than likely remains stable over the next two years, with per-gallon prices ranging between $3 and $4. Stable fuel prices and slow economic recovery will likely reduce the possibility of market variability and can allow manufacturers to better manage their fleets, according to KBB officials.
Overall, the company indicated that residual values for the industry have “remained relatively stable.”
In 2009, the average vehicle was expected to retain 34.1 percent of its original list price after five years of ownership. Meanwhile, in 2010, the average projected retained value dropped a bit to 32.6 percent.
“There have been small gains in retained value in the last year, with the average 2011 model-year vehicle now expected to hold 34 percent of its original list price after five years, which can be attributed to wide swings in retained value in specific segments,” KBB analysts highlighted.
Looking at the disparity between brands at the top of the 2011 Residual Analysis and the remainder of the list, executives discovered the gap between the top and bottom brands is shrinking.
Last year’s list saw a gap of more than 22 percent between the winners and losers.
“In 2011, the difference is now less than 17 percentage points. One cause for the narrowing gap between the top and bottom brands is the number of significant redesigns, facelifts and new nameplates entering the market in 2011,” KBB officials pointed out.
Moreover, they noted that the gas spike of 2008 caused many automakers to lessen production of large gas-guzzling vehicles. Then, a change to CAFE standards was launched, encouraging manufacturers to build smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, which drove up models in the compact and subcompact car segments.
When gas prices returned to more normal levels, consumers shifted their tastes once more and returned back to big trucks and SUVs, KBB found. So with lack of supply and increased demand in the truck and SUV market, officials said these segments will return to strong residual values in 2011.
According to KBB, SUVs, from compact to full-size, saw the largest gains, with compact-utility vehicles retaining their value by 3.4 percentage points more than their 2010 counterparts, for a total of 35.9 percent average in 2011.
Full-size SUVs, on the other hand, gained 2.7 percentage points in maintained value from the prior year, hitting an average of 33.5 percent.
Ultimately, though, the segment forecasted to best retain its value in 2011 is the midsize pickup category, averaging nearly 37 percent.
Small car segments, meanwhile, such as the compact-sedan segment, are expected to become more competitive in the coming years and this will likely impact residual values.
KBB highlighted that almost every manufacturer is redesigning its version of a compact sedan or launching a new model. The subcompact segment is expected to hold about 29.6 percent of its original value in 2011, which is up a bit from 28.9 percent in the previous year. And as the company is expecting only moderate fuel increases, officials anticipate that demand will now creep high enough to absorb the larger supply.
“If the market sees bloated supply and lack of demand in the coming months, it is likely that residuals in this segment will start a downward trend throughout 2011,” analysts said.
Best Resale Value Brands
Subaru took home top honors as the 2011 Best Resale Value, according to KBB.  Last year, Subaru placed sixth. Basically, the automaker was able to increase its expected year-over-year residual average by 2.4 percentage points to 39 percent, whereas several other brands holding tight to the top of the list for several years saw declines of up to 1 percent or more.  
“The overall increase in Subaru’s expected average residual value improved with the all-new Impreza (up 3.9 percent) and the face-lifted Forester (up 2 percent),” officials said.
“According to Kelley Blue Book’s residual analysts, Subaru’s rise to the top spot as 2011 Best Resale Value: Brand is a result of the brand’s ability to keep production very tightly aligned with market demand, sustaining lower lease levels than in the past and bringing superior quality, well-designed vehicles to the market. Declines in residual brand averages among Toyota, and relatively flat movement by Honda also contributed to Subaru’s move to the top,” executives added.
BMW, meanwhile, grabbed top honors for Best Resale Value: Luxury Brand. 
“With quality products in the very strong SUV segment, including 2011 Best Resale Value Award winners X5, X5 XDrive35d and X6, BMW was able to gain the top spot in the luxury segment.  BMW did decline in its year-over-year residual brand average by 1.4 percentage points to 37.1 percent, but took the lead over last year’s winner Lexus, which had a sharper decline of 2.9 percentage points,” KBB analysts reported.
Top 10 Brands: Best Resale Value 2011
Top 10 Brands: Best Resale Value 2010
1.  Subaru                39.0%
1.  Lexus                 39.3%
2.  Toyota                38.5%
2.  Toyota               38.8%
3.  Honda                 38.2%
3.  Honda                38.0%
4.  BMW                  37.1%
4.  Porsche              37.8%
5.  GMC                   36.7%
5.  BMW                 37.2%
6.  Lexus                  36.4%
6.  Subaru               36.6%
7.  Acura                  36.4%
7.  Jeep                    35.7%
8.  Jeep                     36.3%
8.  Acura                 35.2%
9. Mazda                  34.8%
9.  Infiniti               34.5%
10. Audi                   34.8%
10. Audi                 34.2%
 
Best Resale Value Brand Rankings
Criteria for Kelley Blue Book’s Best Resale Value Awards require a brand to have a minimum of four nameplates in its lineup, a factor that eliminates the highest-ranking brand performer year-after-year, Mini, the company’s team revealed. 
“However, this strong brand, which carried an average five-year residual percentage of 45.9 percent for its 2010 models, saw that number drop to 40.6 percent for model-year 2011, with all of its cars falling into the crowded and competitive small-car segment,” executives noted.
Compact Segment Becomes Residual Liability
As consumer interest in small cars lessens, thanks in large part to a reduction in gas prices from the 2008 gas spike, automakers are finding that they cannot afford to change direction quickly enough to meet consumer needs and simultaneously meet government regulations, KBB officials said.
“Last year in the 2010 Kelley Blue Book Residual Analysis, Toyota and Lexus were the top winners; however, both brands were subjected to a difficult 2010, with recall troubles, declines in the strength of smaller cars and an aging Lexus fleet. In last year’s analysis, 2010 Toyota vehicles were expected to maintain 38.8 percent of their MSRP after five years and Lexus vehicles were projected to maintain 39.3 percent. That being said, analysts point to softness in the compact segment, which including the Prius, Yaris and Corolla dropping 5, 3 and 3 percentage points, respectively, which hurt Toyota’s standing in 2011 even more than the recall of early 2010. Lexus took an even bigger hit, falling to a 36.4 percent average in 2011 from 39.3 percent in 2010 with its aging designs,” KBB’s analyst team indicated.
More specifically, Ibara said, “Values in the compact and fuel-efficient segments dropped, severely impacting Toyota, which has some of the most fuel efficient vehicles. While residuals among the smaller cars in Toyota’s stable are down from 2010, the brand mitigated some of the drops this year with its larger vehicles — Sienna, FJ Cruiser and Sequoia — all of which are up more than 3 percentage points year-over-year, helping the brand to maintain its second-place standing.”
KBB went on to say that “Honda clearly has been affected by an overcrowded compact car and hybrid segment.”  This automaker captures Best Resale Value: Brand in both 2007 and 2009; however, Honda’s 2011 models dipped by 6.3 percentage points to reach an average of 38.2 percent in 2011, the company discovered. 
Looking further into Honda values, KBB found a drop of 3 percent for the hybrid Insight, 2.6 percent for the Accord and 1.4 percent for the popular Civic. Even with Best Resale Value Award wins for the Accord, CR-V and Fit, Honda ranks third in overall brand retention just behind Toyota and winner, Subaru.
Continuing on, Mini, with its successful Cooper family of vehicles, has maintained the highest residual value of any vehicle since it came to the U.S. market in 2002. However, KBB indicated that overall Mini’s brand value has been impacted by dropping gas prices and new competition in the premium-compact space. 
“While the two-nameplate brand is still among the top resale value brands, it has suffered the worst decline among all brands in 2011, dropping 5.3 percentage points year-over-year to 40.6 percent, and this is after 2010’s almost 13 percentage point drop.  Mini would have beaten our 2011 Best Resale Value: Brand winner, Subaru by 1.6 percentage points if it met the awards criteria and offered more than four nameplates,” KBB executives shared.
Discussing the compact segment as a whole, Ibara said, “Kelley Blue Book has identified several new vehicles that will be introduced into the compact and subcompact segments in 2011. With predicted softer demand, manufacturers may need to implement strong incentive programs to assist in selling through new inventory, which can negatively impact residual values.” 
“Another possible solution to a crowded compact market is for manufacturers to pay the fines that come along with not meeting CAFE requirements, and to continue to build vehicles that are in demand to better compete in the marketplace.  This decision will depend on pricing and the mix of vehicles each manufacturer brings to bear,” according to the KBB team.
Lower Fuel Prices Also Impact Hybrids, Alternative-Fuel Vehicles
Similar to the compact segment, slower demand for premium-priced, alternative-fuel vehicles has weakened the outlook for fuel-sipping environmentally friendly engines, even with new vehicles and new technologies entering the segment, KBB revealed.
In 2010, the hybrid/alternative fuel segment carried a residual average of 36.3 percent. For the 2011 model year, that figure dropped 2.4 percentage points to 34 percent. However, strength in the SUV and truck market helped the hybrid/alternative fuel SUV segment for 2011 show an increase of 2.1 percentage points from a 32.5 percent average for the 2010 models to a 34.6 percent average among 2011 model-year vehicles.
“In 2009, there was only one dedicated hybrid: the Toyota Prius. The Prius was redesigned for 2010, offering improved fuel economy and a reduced sticker price, but it also had new competition in the segment with the addition of the Honda Insight and the Lexus HS. Both the Insight and the HS have struggled to find mass market favor and thus are experiencing expected declines in their 2011 residual values, dropping by 3 and 8 percentage points, respectively.  Additionally, the Prius has declined by 5 percentage points from 2010 to 2011,” KBB analysts said.
In 2011, the plug-in Chevrolet Volt and full-electric Nissan LEAF will enter the market, selling at low volumes. However, KBB said these models stand as image-changers for both manufacturers and garner much in the way of perceived technological leadership.
“Predicting values for unproven powertrain technologies such those in the Volt and LEAF are very speculative at this
moment,” said Ibara. “The public’s acceptance of these engine technologies is unknown, particularly with regard to
affordability, overall cost of ownership, range and durability.”
 
The availability of government subsidies will be a major consideration factor for consumers considering both the LEAF and the Volt in 2011.  However, should one or several of these technologies become widely accepted, it could cause conventional hybrid values to plummet, KBB predicted.
 
Domestic Automakers
 
KBB said that domestic manufacturers “are experiencing a positive perfect storm as they head into 2011, driving expected residual values upward.”
 
With gas prices remaining steady, SUVs and trucks making a strong comeback, and quality product and design coming out of Detroit, the Big Three are heading toward a renaissance, according to the company.  Vehicles produced by the domestic automakers continue to see an uptick in forecasted residuals over previous years, analysts reported.

 

MANUFACTURER
2011
2010
2009
General Motors Brands
34.6%
31.4%
29.5%
Ford Brands
32.1%
32.0%
31.7%
Chrysler Brands
31.5%
29.5%
28.0%
 
 
 
(Please note – the final percentages for 2011 have been modified slightly compared to previous reporting to reflect the demise of Mercury, Saturn, Hummer, Pontiac and Saab.)
“In the last few years, the domestics have brought quality products and designs into the marketplace, showcasing products that have boosted their brands and perceived quality,” said Ibara.  “We also are seeing a great amount of discipline among the domestic manufacturers when it comes to the percentage of vehicles sold into the rental fleets, which tend to drag residual values down.  All of these positive changes bode well for Detroit, its products and its future.”
General Motors
 For 2011, General Motors’ brands are showing the best projected aggregated residual average among the domestic car manufacturers, surpassing Ford, KBB said. 
“In fact, General Motors increased its combined residual average of its four remaining brands to 34.6 percent, up 3.2 percentage points from last year,” the team reported.
“While many manufacturers have focused on increased production of small cars, GM continued to focus on what it does best: trucks and SUVs.  Many analysts would not have guessed this strategy would be paying off in 2011, yet with all of GM’s SUVs in its lineup, they take the 2011 title for best domestic residual average,” KBB analysts shared
According to Ibara, “In addition to having so many new and redesigned quality products introduced by the GM brands this year, a portion of their overall gain can be attributed to the thinning down of the organization. The sun-setting of four of GM’s brands has had a positive effect on the residual values of its remaining brands.”
GMC was the second-largest residual value gainer of any brand year-over-year, going from ninth place in 2010 to fifth in the 2011 residual brand standings.  GMC’s strong showing for 2011 is thanks to increased residuals among the Terrain, Acadia (a 2011 Best Resale Value Award Winner for the Full-Size SUV segment) and Sierra trucks, the company said.
Chevrolet also apparently received a boost in its residual average with increases among its lineup of crossovers, including the Equinox and Traverse, as well as the redesigned Silverado HD pickup trucks. 
General Motors Brand
2011 Projected Residual Average
YOY Change
GMC
36.7%
+ 4.6%
Chevrolet
34.6%
+ 3.2%
Buick
29.9%
+ 2.4%
Cadillac
29.5%
– 0.1%
 Ford
KBB said that Ford vehicles were relatively flat year-over-year, losing just 0.1 percent. 
“Ford was able to hold steady with a strong residual value from its reinvigorated Mustang, holding an average 38 percent across its trim levels.  With SUVs holding strong into 2011, Ford is experiencing a lift from the all-new Explorer, securing an expected 2011 residual value of 32 percent.  The Ford Mustang, Taurus and F-Series Super Duty trucks all received 2011 Best Resale Value Awards,” the company highlighted.
KBB also said Ford has much riding on the launch of its 2011 Fiesta.  While the compact and sub-compact segments continue to become more and more competitive in the coming year, this vehicle is projected to maintain close to 30 percent of its original value after 60 months, just slightly above the segment average.
With Mercury being phased out, Ford is apparently focusing quite a bit of attention on re-energizing the Lincoln brand, making it the next relevant luxury step for current Ford owners, the company suggested. The Lincoln brand received a miniscule 0.2 percent rise in residuals last year, but is projected to see a 3 percent lift for 2011 with the success of its redesigned MKX luxury crossover, which is projected to have a 32 percent residual value, according to KBB.
Ford Brands
2011 Projected Residual Average
YOY Change
Ford
32.7%
– 0.1%
Lincoln
30.1%
+ 3.0%
Mercury
27.0%
– 1.1%
 Chrysler
Reviewing Chrysler, KBB’s analyst team said this automaker remains somewhat of a question for many consumers as well as industry observers, as the brand’s highly anticipated product renaissance, powered by its partnership with Fiat, has yet to take shape. 
“In the first half of 2011, 11 new or significantly updated Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep models will reach showrooms, which should include new V6 engines, aggressive exterior designs and refined interior packages.  For 2011, Jeep witnessed significant progress in two Jeep products, including the 2011 Top 10 Best Resale Value Award-winning Jeep Wrangler with a 45.2 percent residual value, and the all-new 2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee, which jumped 8.4 percentage points to 26 percent,” said KBB officials.
Hyundai and Kia Make Significant Gains
Interestingly, Kia showed the greatest gain in residual values over the last year. This automaker is expected to retain a combined 30.5 percent of its value after 60 months.  Kia was up 6.7 percentage points year-over-year, largely due to the redesigned Sportage, which was up a significant 12.2 percentage points to 34 percent, and the redesigned Sorento, up 8.3 percentage points to 31 percent.  The uniquely designed Soul, with a 32 percent five-year residual, also lifts Kia’s overall brand average. 
Hyundai also is projected to maintain an additional 2.4 percentage points from last year based on the strength of the redesigned Sonata, which was up 7.3 percentage points, and the recently redesigned Tucson, up 9.3 percentage points, KBB pointed out.  As further example of Hyundai’s move up the ladder, the Genesis (at 31.5 percent) is helping to improve Hyundai’s overall 60-month average, the company added.
“Kia and Hyundai’s striking improvement in residual values can be attributed to increased quality, safety equipment and significant product redesigns that are so dramatically different from their past vehicles, both consumers and the industry are finding it very easy to ignore past perceptions.  Additionally, both manufacturers have cut the overall percentage of vehicles being sent into the daily fleet, having a significant positive effect on both companies’ residual success,” KBB officials said.
Korean Brands
2011 Projected Residual Average
YOY Change
Kia
30.5 %
+ 6.7 %
Hyundai
29 %
+ 2.4 %