McLEAN, Va. -

Though the trade-in numbers for vehicles three years old and younger has been “very low,” Jack Ballinghoff has found that fellow Toyota dealers shouldn’t have any problem finding off-lease vehicles.

The general manager of Koons Tysons Toyota said that while he’s not pursuing the three-year-old and younger vehicles right now, Toyota dealers who are can find a bountiful crop within the automaker’s off-lease channel, particularly for the companys “bread-and-butter” models.

And it appears that healthier volumes of fleet and off-lease units will help push supplies of these younger used vehicles over the next two quarters.

According to projections released Wednesday by NADA Used Car Guide, the supply of one- to three-year-old vehicles is expected to jump 2 percent sequentially this quarter and then follow that up with even steeper growth to begin 2013.

NADA Used Car Guide forecasts that the number of vehicle aged three years or younger will climb 6 percent between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2013.  

This would continue what, according to NADA UCG estimates, has been happening all year within this age group.

Overall, however, the used supply situation is tighter.

Granted, stronger new-vehicle sales — which have increased the vehicle population and trade-ins flowing into dealerships — have led to some relief in used supply, analysts noted in the “NADA Used Vehicle Price Forecast: Winter/Spring 2012-2013” report.

“But there's still some time to go before the overall supply of used vehicles begins to grow again, because length of ownership cycles are such that new units don’t begin to enter the used market in meaningful numbers until three to four years down the road,” they added.

“That being said, the structured nature of lease contracts, combined with shorter lease terms, mean the volume of off-lease units will improve faster than it will for retail purchases.”

NADA UCG anticipates lease volume to begin to move in a positive direction this quarter, and expects 3-percent fleet supply growth for full-year 2012, which would follow a  4-percent increase in 2011.

Hence, the aforementioned uptick in volume for units aged three years or less.

As for all ages of used vehicles (up to 8 years old), supply is likely to fall 2 percent sequentially this quarter and then drop 1 percent in the first quarter of 2013, NADA UCG said.

Vehicles four- to five-years old are expected to see a 5-percent drop in supply this quarter, then fall another 4 percent to start 2013.

The supply of six- to eight-year-old vehicles is likely to be more stable, as it is projected to fall 1 percent this quarter and then remain steady the next.

And while CNW Research recently observed that October’s days’ supply of used vehicles (50.37) represented a 2012 high, hurdles are still evident.

Chris Martin, current president of the National Independent Automobile Dealers Association and a buy-here pay-here dealer in Fayetteville, N.C., reinforced these supply challenges — particularly for vehicles outside of the late-model realm — when talking to Auto Remarketing at the recent NABD East Coast Conference in Atlanta.

“It’s as tough as I’ve ever seen it to try to find the kind of vehicles we need to put on our lots,” Martin said. “It’s obviously still out there. We just have to work a little harder to find it. You talk to some guys and they don’t seem to be having much of an issue in finding inventory. That tells me that they’re just doing what they have to do to find it.”

Staff Writer Nick Zulovich contributed to this report.