SOUTHFIELD, Mich. -

Light vehicles in operation, as of January 1, reached a record level of 257.9 million. And the average age of those vehicles experienced a slight uptick to 11.5 years old. On top of that, volumes of cars up to five years old are expected to jump by as much as 24 percent over the next five years. 

That’s according to data from IHS Automotive, who noted that the number of registered light vehicles increased by more than 5.3 million since last year, a 2.1-percent jump representing the highest annual increase the U.S. automotive industry has seen since IHS began tracking the metric.

IHS predicts that the average age of light vehicles in the U.S. will likely climb again in 2016 and hit 11.6 years, but there is a plateau expected. It will likely take until 2018 for the average age to hit 11.7 years in 2018. This slowdown in growth is predicted due to the recent recovery of new-vehicle sales.

Another interesting angle to look at the overall American fleet is the age mix. IHS anticipates, based on the aforementioned new-vehicle registration growth, that the volume of vehicles ages zero to 5 years old will increase by 24 percent over the next five years. Vehicles in the 6- to 11-year-old range will decline by 11 percent while vehicles 12 years and older will continue to grow, by as much as 15 percent, by 2020.

“While the decline in volumes of vehicles six to 11 years old appears to indicate that the aftermarket ‘sweet spot’ — those model years driving the majority of aftermarket repair opportunities — is shrinking,” Seng said. “I believe we need to begin thinking about that ‘sweet spot’ differently. Now that the average age is 11.5 years, the key to repair opportunities must include vehicles older than 11 years, which hasn’t been considered by many in the marketplace up to now.”

As of this year, the number of 6- to 11-year-old vehicles in the U.S. consists of 81 million cars and light trucks. Extending that range to include up to 13-year-old vehicles, that number jumps to 108 million and borders 120 million for vehicles between 6 and 14 years of age.

“As long as we have tracked average age, it has gradually risen over time due to the increasing quality of automobiles,” said Mark Seng, IHS Automotive’s global aftermarket practice leader. “For the five to six years following the recession, however, average age increased about five times its traditional rate, which we attribute to the nearly 40 percent drop in new-vehicle sales in 2008-2009. We’re now seeing average age begin to plateau and return to its traditional rate of increase as consumers have recovered from the great recession and have begun buying new vehicles again.”

Looking at some of this year's vehicles passing through the auction lanes, the National Auto Auction Association’s most recent Economic Dashboard indicates that monthly auction volume at the end of June was up 8.3 percent over June 2014, and year-to-date numbers were up 7.3 percent, both for comparable weeks.

Here are a few other interesting stats fleshed out by IHS:

  • New vehicle registrations outpaces scrappage by over 42 percent, the highest rate since the stat has been tracked by the IHS.
  • As of Q1 2015, the average length of ownership for a new vehicle is 77.8 months, an increase of nearly 26 months since Q1. 2006. Following the same metric, used vehicle ownership averages out to 63 months, an increase of 25 months since Q1.
  • The number of vehicles scrapped in 2014 declined from 2013’s number to just over 11 million light vehicles, representing 4.4 percent of the fleet. The record high number of vehicles scrapped in a year, 14 million vehicles, occurred in 2012.

For more insight from IHS Automotive, visit its site here.