SOUTHFIELD, Mich. -

Although the average age of a vehicle on the road today is steady from a year ago and appears to have reached a “plateau,” the number of vehicles out there has hit an all-time, according to IHS Automotive.

And in what’s potentially good news for dealers and their certified pre-owned operations, IHS is forecasting strong volume gains in the next five years for vehicles ages zero to 5 years old.

Overall, IHS said — citing its July 2013 analysis — that there were more than 252.7 million total light vehicles in operation, which is an all-time high and a 1.5-percent year-over-year rise (or, put differently, a 3.7 million-unit increase).

When asked what the impact this record number of VIO will have for dealers in the used-car market, Mark Seng, director, aftermarket solutions and global aftermarket practice leader at IHS Automotive, shared this:  “Record VIO in general is good for used-car market availability. Too much supply, of course, may drive prices down, but the fact that new registration demand seems to be driven more by replacement demand rather than ‘false’ demand of a booming economy, it may keep the excess demand in check to a point.”

Given how strong the U.S. auto market has bounced back, thus leading to increases in new-vehicle registrations, IHS projects a 32-percent rise in volume over the next five years for vehicles ages zero to 5, but a 21-percent slide in the number of 6- to 11-year-old units.

Looking at the projected VIO growth for the 5-year-old and younger class, there are certainly benefits dealers could see within their CPO operations.

“With new registrations growing again and new- to 5-year-old vehicles on the rise, this certainly offers the dealers a growing warranty customer base again and the potential to create relationships with these car owners in order to try and get them to remain dealer customers as their vehicles age, rather than going to the independent aftermarket, which is what typically happens when the vehicle is no longer under warranty,” Seng noted.

As for vehicles 12 years or older, IHS says this population will remain on the upward track and jump 15 percent in the next five years, given improved vehicle quality and longer ownership periods.

As of Jan. 1, the average age of a vehicle on U.S. roads today was 11.4 years, which is even with prior numbers, IHS said. Next year will likely bare the same results, before the average age increases to 11.5 years by 2017 and then 11.7 years by 2019. Thanks to much stronger new-car sales, this projected growth rate over the next five years is less than the clip from the prior period, IHS said.

“In our history of tracking, we have seen a gradual increase in the average age of vehicles on the road,” said Seng. “This year, we’re seeing somewhat of a plateau in the market, and expect it to remain over the next few years, without a major change in either direction.

“We attribute this to a number of factors, including the economy and the increasing quality of today’s automobiles.”

IHS noted in its report that new-car registrations beat scrappage by over 24 percent, which hasn’t happened in a decade. 

In 2013, there were 11.5 million units scrapped, which IHS said was “significantly fewer” than numbers from prior years — like, for instance, the all-time high of 14 million scrapped in 2012. 

“This while VIO is up 1.5 percent, a rate the auto industry hasn’t seen in the U.S. since 2004-2005,” IHS would add.