Manheim, Black Book used-car price indices both reach 15-month lows
Some good news for dealers amid the holiday season: prices on wholesale vehicles continue to fall, and it's becoming slightly easier to get these cars on their lots than it was a year ago.
A least two industry indices measuring wholesale vehicle prices have reached their lowest levels in 15 months, respectively.
Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index came in at 171.4 for November. That’s a 1.6% month-over-month decline and a 9.7% year-over-year drop.
Its also the lowest reading of the index since September 2021, when it was at 169.5, according to Black Book.
Meanwhile, Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index came in at 199.4, which on an adjusted basis represents at 14.2% year-over-year drop and a 0.3% sequential drop.
Unadjusted, Manheim’s index is down 1.6% from October and 12.4% from November 2021.
Like Black Book’s index, the Manheim index was at a 15-month low in November. It was also the first time in 16 months that the index came in below 200.
While wholesale prices still remain well above pre-pandemic levels — Black Book’s index was 49.6% higher than March 2020 levels — they continue to ease and are likely to continue that pattern.
Manheim's wholesale price index has declined sequentially for six straight months; it has fallen year-over-year for three straight months. Black Book's index has declined month-over-month for five conseuctive months and softened year-over-year the last two months.
“Wholesale prices for the 2-6-year-old vehicle segments that comprise of Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index continued to decline in November, although the rate of decline is smaller compared to the previous two months,” Black Book chief data science officer Alex Yurchenko said in a news release.
“With uncertainty in the economy and weaker used retail demand, we started to see declines in retail listing prices, although not at the same rate as wholesale prices,” Yurchenko said. “We expect used prices (both wholesale and retail) to continue to drop through December and into the new year as new inventory levels will continue to improve.”
As far as used inventory, Cox Automotive estimated that retail supply was at 47 days at the end of last month, citing vAuto data. That's softer than October (53 days) but is up 3 days year-over-year.
Meanwhile, Cox said Manheim data indicates there was 29 days' supply in the wholesale market at the end of November. That's even with October and beats year-ago levels of 24 days.