Although estimated overall used-car sales for January are 8% softer year-over-year, the market improved from December, and sales of certified pre-owned vehicles were up 21.5% year-over-year.

That’s according to analyses this week from Cox Automotive.

Overall, Cox estimates there were 2.81 million used cars sold last month, compared to 3.05 million in January 2022.

Last month beat December’s revised tally of 2.48 million.

Looking at used retail volume — those sales originating at a dealership — Cox estimated there were 1.49 million sales in January. That’s up from revised figures of 1.31 million in December, but down 7.5% from the 1.61 million used units that dealers sold in January 2022.

To clarify, January’s latest estimate of used retail sales in Wednesday’s Data Point report is different from what Cox Automotive had projected in its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index report on Feb. 7.  In that report, the company estimated that, based on same-store dealership data from its Dealertrack unit, used sales for dealers climbed 16% month-over-month in January and beat year-ago figures by 5%.

A Cox Automotive spokesperson provided a clarification on the discrepancy, noting that, “the Dealertrack numbers are early estimates intended to show directionally how the market is performing,” and is a same-store sample set of data intended to show where the market may be headed.

Meantime, the second batch of numbers (those published Wednesday) would have a lag each month.

“We consider the most recent two months of that data as estimates which will be revised based on registration data. If momentum suddenly improves, as it appears it did in January, those initial numbers won’t be as strong as our early Dealertrack read. So, we are expecting an eventual upward revision to the monthly data,” the spokesperson explained, later adding that, “it is important to consider these two data sets together since the Dealertrack one is showing the likely sales trend and is foreshadowing what we expect to ultimately see in the used sales data once it is finalized.”

Going back to the numbers released this week, the overall used-car SAAR in January was 35.9 million, up from December’s revised 34.6 million and down from 39.0 million a year ago, Cox said.

The used retail SAAR was 19.0 million last month, up from the revised rate of 18.3 million in December and down from 20.6 million in January 2022.

 “The used market is showing some surprising strength to start the year. Although down from last year, the recent sales pace has been ticking slightly higher,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charles Chesbrough said in Wednesday’s Data Point report.

“High prices in the new market, coupled with weakening used-car prices, is supporting slightly stronger used demand,” Chesbrough said. “ If this holds up for the next few months, the spring selling season may be better than initially expected.”

What’s also showing strength is the CPO market.

In a separate Data Point report on Tuesday, Cox said that based on its analysis of Motor Intelligence data, January’s 202,074 CPO sales were a 21.5% year-over-year hike.

While 10% from December, such a month-over-month drop is typical, Cox said.

“We have seen some automakers — such as Ford, Honda and Nissan — expand their CPO programs to include 9-and-10-year-old vehicles. Plus, Ford offers 84-month loans for certified vehicles up to three years old,” Cox Automotive senior manager of economic and industry insights Chris Frey said in the report.

“The strong January CPO numbers may be reflecting these CPO program changes, which improve options for consumers as the pool of gently used vehicles shrinks.”

This momentum follows what was a 10.2% decline in full-year CPO sales for 2022, which came in at 2.47 million units, Cox said.

The company anticipates sales will come in at 2.2 million units this year, which would be an 11% decline.

It would also be the slowest year for certified in a decade and hampered largely by limited availability of units.

But as Frey noted, some automakers are adapting. And January, at least, showed some promise.