Used-vehicle sales fell 9.2% year-over-year in September and are trending toward a full-year tally more than 12% softer than that of 2021, according to Cox Automotive.

But there remains some positive signs, particularly late last month, which saw an uptick in the rolling 30-day retail sales for used cars, according to the company’s Manheim Market Insights released Friday.

“Retail sales of used vehicles continue to hold up reasonably well, despite higher rates and fewer subprime buyers,” Kevin Chartier, who is vice president of Manheim Market Insights, said in a video report. “The retail daily sales rate showed surprising strength in September, especially when you consider Hurricane Ian had a material impact on sales in Florida for more than a week.

“So, no signs of a recessionary demand destruction here, and we may even see a slight uptick in used-vehicle sales as Florida recovers from Hurricane Ian.”

The full-year tally, however, is expected to fall more than 12% short of last year’s 40.6 million total used-car sales, Cox said in a Data Point report earlier this month.

“Rising interest rates are likely taking potential buyers out of the used vehicle market,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said in the mid-October report. “However, limited supply in the new market is likely pushing some of these shoppers into the used market.

“For the rest of this year, it is expected that sales of used vehicles will face increasing headwinds as rising interest rates lift monthly payments, and new vehicle inventory continues to recover.”

Through nine months of the year, used retail pricing appears fairly solid.

In Friday’s video report, Chartier noted: “Interestingly, as we have seen throughout the past few months, despite rapid wholesale value declines, retail used prices have held up relatively well.

“According to the latest measures by our team at vAuto, retail list prices were relatively steady again in September and were up 6% year-over-year,” he said.

“So on the used retail side, both sales and prices continue to show surprising strength, given all the concerns regarding a potential recession.”

In terms of used inventory and listing numbers, Chartier indicated those recovered earlier in 2022 and are beating year-ago numbers by 10%. This has days supply to a bit high, but not alarming, level near 50 days.

“This is likely why dealers have been more conservative in the wholesale lanes the past few months, especially with all the concerns about a potential recession on the horizon,” Charter said. “With larger-than-average wholesale price declines we’ve seen over the past couple of months, dealers who have kept their aged inventory to a minimum are going to have a competitive advantage, with more pricing flexibility than dealers who still has a lot of aged units to liquidate.”