CARY, N.C. -

Despite a cautionary tone from the Federal Reserve chairman about what is — or is not — being done by federal lawmakers, one survey showed consumers appear poised to spend more in the fourth quarter and beyond.

While Fed chair Jerome Powell said an “expansion is still far from complete,” advertising technology provider OpenX discovered that despite the pandemic, 58% of consumers expect to spend the same amount or more than recent years this holiday season, maybe even on a used- or new-vehicle purchase.

OpenX arrived at that finding this week through a new study with market research company, The Harris Poll.

The research also showed while most consumers said it is too early to tell what they will spend, more than a third already say they will spend more in 2021 than 2020.

And companies are looking to capture consumers’ attention. Nearly half of all marketers who participated in the OpenX survey plan to add money back into the budget in Q4.

Of those marketers that will add money back into the budget, 80% said it will be equal to or larger than their budget pre-COVID-19.

OpenX chief executive officer John Gentry said in a news release that accompanied the survey results, “2020 has been a year that no one could have expected, with massive global disruption leading to changes in consumer spending and the types of media consumers engage with.

“What we found in this report, however, is that marketers have a very good sense of the consumer mindset in today's environment,” Gentry continued. “When consumers cut spending, marketers did the same, and now that consumers are starting to spend more, we're seeing marketing budgets rise as well.

Gentry then added, “80% of marketers say that they are ready to adapt to a second wave of COVID-19 if it happens, showing that as an industry, we are adjusting to the new normal and business is continuing to push forward.”

Economic outlook and political gridlock

Pushing forward is certainly what Powell hopes to have happen.

This week, Powell gave a speech during the virtual annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, specifically addressing the need for more action by Congress and the White House. More robust unemployment benefits expired at the end of July, and other assistance to specific industries such as airlines through the CARES Act finished at the close of the third quarter. And another version of the Paycheck Protection Program has not yet come to fruition.

“At this early stage, I would argue that the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric,” Powell said. “Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses. Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy, and holding back wage growth.

“By contrast, the risks of overdoing it seem, for now, to be smaller,” he continued. “Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste. The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.”

Within hours of Powell’s comments, President Donald Trump went on Twitter and said, “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.”

Then later on the social media platform, Trump tweeted, “If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now.”

Earlier research from Cox Automotive showed how crucial that $1,200 injection could be to vehicle sales.

Whether it’s dealerships trying to retail vehicles or small businesses selling holiday knickknacks, Powell acknowledged that the economic outlook “remains highly uncertain, in part because it depends on controlling the spread and effects of the virus.”

Powell continued during his virtual appearance saying, “There is a risk that the rapid initial gains from reopening may transition to a longer than expected slog back to full recovery as some segments struggle with the pandemic's continued fallout. The pace of economic improvement has moderated since the outsize gains of May and June, as is evident in employment, income, and spending data. The increase in permanent job loss, as well as recent layoffs, are also notable.

“We should continue do what we can to manage downside risks to the outlook. One such risk is that COVID-19 cases might again rise to levels that more significantly limit economic activity, not to mention the tragic effects on lives and well-being. Managing this risk as the expansion continues will require following medical experts' guidance, including using masks and social-distancing measures,” he went on say.

Then Powell added, “A second risk is that a prolonged slowing in the pace of improvement over time could trigger typical recessionary dynamics, as weakness feeds on weakness. A long period of unnecessarily slow progress could continue to exacerbate existing disparities in our economy. That would be tragic, especially in light of our country's progress on these issues in the years leading up to the pandemic.”

More reaction to Trump’s negotiation decision

While Powell’s comments came ahead of Trump’s tweets, an organization for locally elected officials and a coalition for small business chastised the president.

First this statement from the U.S. Conference of Mayors president and Louisville mayor Greg Fischer:

“On the very day that the Fed Chairman called for aggressive action on the economy, the nation’s mayors are deeply disappointed with President Trump’s decision to walk away from negotiations on a COVID relief bill until after the election. Now is not the time for ultimatums, but a time to re-double our efforts to address and alleviate the pain of the American people.

“Today’s failure to deliver badly needed fiscal assistance to cities of all shapes and sizes is going to amount to increased job losses, decreased public safety and a greatly impaired economic recovery. Cities across the country have been struggling with budget shortfalls for months as a direct result of the pandemic, and hundreds of bipartisan mayors have been echoing the call to congressional and administration leaders for an economic lifeline in the form of immediate flexible fiscal relief.

“The victims of today’s failure will be the American people — residents in cities across the country — led by Republicans, Independents and Democrats — who will see critical services further reduced or eliminated entirely. It will be impossible to make up for the time that will be lost — and the suffering that will be felt by Americans across the country, so we urge leaders on both sides of the aisle to get back to the hard work required to finalize a package that will provide much-needed relief. This crisis is far from over and the American people deserve better.”

Next came the words from Main Street Alliance executive director Amanda Ballantyne:

“For Trump to stop negotiations on urgently needed relief, stating he will only resume negotiations after he 'wins' he election shows callous disregard for millions of Americans suffering extreme financial hardship. The President appears willing to take the economy down with him if he fails, at this point.

“Small business owners across the country are aghast at the short sightedness of this refusal to move an aid package. The failed leadership of the Trump Administration to control the pandemic and keep the economy on track will drive many small business owners to close and lead to prolonged economic hardship for working families in this country. Main Street Alliance members and small businesses across the country have been clamoring for months that additional support is necessary to avert a prolonged, protracted, costly and livelihood destroying economic crisis.

“Small businesses have waited far too long for needed relief, and the consequences of delay have meant hundreds of thousands of closures impacting the labor market and economy. This is no time for political brinksmanship.”