CARY, N.C. -

You don't have to be Phil Dunphy to know that in the world of real estate, they would call this a “seller’s market.”

Supply is tight, prices are at record highs and inventory is turning.

After reaching an all-time high last month, Cox Automotive’s measure of wholesale vehicle prices has continued to show steep gains in the first half of April.

The mid-April reading of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was 191.4, which beat the year-ago figure by 52.2%.

And for context, the March reading of the index — again, an all-time high — was 179.2.

Adjusted for mix, mileage and seasonality, wholesale prices in the first half of April were up 6.81% versus March.

And in another of the company’s measures of wholesale pricing, the Three-Year-Old Manheim Market Report (MMR) Index, climbed 3.8% in the first two weeks of the month. 

The company has also observed an MMR Retention rate, which measures average difference in price against current MMR value, of 103.2% in the first half of the month, along with gains in conversion rates.

“Sales efficiency last week was more than 15 percentage points higher than the average sales efficiency in April 2019,” the company said in analysis accompanying the index. “The latest trends in the key indicators suggest used vehicle values are likely to continue to see appreciation for several more weeks.”

And as of April 18, wholesale prices have shown 16 straight week-over-week increases, according to Friday’s Used Market Update from J.D. Power.

Wholesale prices up 2.1% the week ending April 18 and 2% the week ending April 11.

They have climbed 29% since the end of December and are beating the prior peak (in August) by 17%, J.D. Power said.

Like Cox Automotive, J.D. Power anticipates continued strength in wholesale prices, which are likely to stay close to all-time highs thanks to “macro-economic headwinds” spurred by the pandemic. In fact, J.D. Power said fourth-quarter wholesale prices could 6% stronger than prior-year figures.

But a strong market doesn't necessarily mean a nonvolatile market. 

“It is important to note, however, that while the outlook remains optimistic, there remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the effect of vaccine roll-out, federal stimulus, employment conditions, new vehicle production constraints, as well as the ongoing semiconductor (microchip) and other supply chain issues on the new side of the market,” J.D. Power said in the report. “Given these unknowns, a heightened degree of used market volatility should be expected.”

As far as supply, the market is feeling a pinch.

The most recent seven-day period had a wholesale days’ supply of 17, compared to the normal level of 23, according to the Cox/Manheim data.

 In its analysis, J.D. Power provided an example of the current “lean” ways of the auction market.

There were about 88,000 auction sales of vehicles up to 8 years old the week ending April 18, down modestly from the prior week. The week-by-week movement has been fairly steady, J.D. Power said, but the market is between 20-30% softer than year-ago figures.

“Last week’s result emphasizes how lean the wholesale marketplace is running, which is helping to keep used prices strong,” the company said.