SANTA MONICA, Calif. -

Industry incentives continue their decline, but transaction prices seem to be on the way up, when compared to last year’s rates.  

More specifically, TrueCar.com analysts estimated that the average transaction price for light vehicles in the U.S. was $30,369 last month, up $487 (1.6 percent) from July 2011 and down $139 (0.5 percent) from June 2012.

In fact, some automakers have posted record high average transaction prices this summer.

For example, TrueCar noted that Hyundai/Kia’s average transaction price for July came in at $22,340, up 7 percent from June’s $20,881.

And the site explained that Honda and Toyota also posted record transaction rates.

Honda’s average transaction rate for July sits at $27,123, up from $26,603 in June, and Toyota rose 3 percent to $28,074 from June’s $27,266.

And even though transaction rates are high, high used-car prices could potentially bring many consumers out to the new-car lots.

Commenting on this trend, Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive Iinsights for Kelley Blue Book, said, “With some one- and two-year-old used vehicles commanding as much as 90 percent of original MSRP, many consumers have opted to purchase a new vehicle rather than used. 

"In some cases, a new vehicle actually is a more affordable proposition than an equivalent one- or two-year-old model, due to more attractive finance offers and lease opportunities for new vehicles," he continued.

"This phenomenon likely only will last through the end of the year.  In fact, used-vehicle values declined 2.3 percent in July alone, and currently they are down close to 6 percent year-over-year," Gutierrez added. "As used-vehicle supply improves in 2013, Kelley Blue Book expects to see the gap between late-model used vehicles and new-car transaction prices widen. This should prompt many buyers to look to used cars as a viable replacement, putting an additional burden on manufacturers to rely on incentives to make up for potentially reduced demand next year."

Incentives Spiral Down

On the other hand, TrueCar estimated that the average incentive for light-vehicles was $2,480 in July, down $96 (3.7 percent) from July 2011 and down $68 (2.7 percent) from June 2012.

"Even though automakers may give the impression that they are ramping up incentives spending, the very low cost of funds and historically high resale values are in fact enabling them to create a ton of noise with fewer actual dollars spent," said Jesse Toprak, vice president of market intelligence for TrueCar.com.

“Manufacturers are increasingly moving away from cash incentives and pushing finance and lease programs, which –along with consumers continuing to buy highly-optioned out vehicles- is helping with sustained high level of transaction prices,” he continued.

Offering another take, according to Edmunds.com’s True Cost of Incentives data, the auto industry spent $2,236 per vehicle this month, up 0.6 percent from June, but down 6.2 percent from July 2011.

And according to Edmunds.com’, the site contends car incentives “remained relatively stable in July,” with one Big 3 OEM standing out the most.

“The stability of General Motors stands out the most, following the company’s heavily publicized marketing program launched earlier last month,” officials noted.

According to Edmunds.com’s True Cost of Incentives, GM incentives fell 0.3 percent from June to July, despite launching Chevy Total Confidence, which promises “a great deal on your Chevy, with no need to negotiate.”

And specifically, GM’s spending on Chevrolet alone fell, as well, sliding from $3,328 in June to $3,176 in July ( a 4.6 percent drop).

“Savvy consumers don’t see tremendous value in the Total Confidence program,” says Edmunds.com senior analyst Jessica Caldwell, explaining that the program may not have sparked as much shopper interest as expected. 

“The Total Confidence pricing is similar in many cases to our True Market Value pricing – and for some vehicles, it was even higher. So, depending on the situation, a consumer could have gotten a better deal before the program started,” she continued.

But bucking the current incentives trend was Nissan.

The Japanese OEM’s incentives rate grew 18.4 percent month-over-month, thanks mostly to a surge in incentives (22 percent) on its luxury brand Infiniti.