CARY, N.C. -

Though the numbers are not yet final, the used-car market is likely to have reached 40.9 million sales in 2021, which would be roughly a 10% year-over-year gain, Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in a conference call Friday.

And the growth for used-car sales involving a dealer is expected to be even better.

Cox anticipates what it considers retail used-car sales (or those coming from a dealer) to have climbed nearly 13% last year and reached 22.2 million units.

And this strong market in 2021, which appears to have been a “record year for used sales,” has occurred amid a supply shortage and sky-high prices.

The year closed with total used-car sales falling an estimated 4% year-over-year in December, the company said in its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index report. 

The total used-car SAAR for the month was estimated at 39.1 million, against 40.6 million in December 2020 and 39.1 million for November (revised). 

Cox is estimating the retail used-car SAAR for the month at 20.4 million, even with November. The December 2020 used-car retail SAAR was 21.6 million, it said.

As for 2022, Cox is forecasting 39.3 million overall used-car sales and 22.1 million used retail sales.

“The used market will continue to be strong, especially in the spring, but the market will struggle to see any change in volumes compared to what we achieved in 2021, especially because of the record volumes in the spring of 2021, specifically,” Smoke said during the call.

The company is forecasting a record year for certified pre-owned sales in 2022 with 3.0 million CPO units sold, but it is likely to be the final year of a decade-long peak run.

Lower supply, particularly for the CPO-friendly off-lease variety, means this year is likely the last record year for the market.

“We’re a little bit down on lease maturities. So there’s enough volume to give us a record in 2022 and that's what we're forecasting,” Smoke said. “But it’s probably going to be the last year we can set a record, because the declining lease maturities going forward after 2022 is going to make that much harder to pull off. But we definitely see the demand and the supply there for one more year.”