Used & New Sales Surge from Year-Ago Levels

As one Japanese brand earned both the used- and new-vehicle top spots within Kbb.com's latest rankings of most-researched models, the industy as a whole has been surging, according to auto analysts.

And that includes both used- and new-vehicle sales for September.

With CNW predicting that used sales will reach 3.49 million units for this month,  which would compare to 3.23 million used sales in September 2011, Kelley Blue Book is forecasting that new-car sales will reach 1.14 million — representing a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14.3 million.

This is just slightly down from the 14.5 million SAAR achieved in August, according to KBB. But year-over-year, it marks an 8-percent improvement for September.

"This time last year Toyota and Honda were able to boost production and sales after several months of downtime following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan," said Alec Gutierrez, KBB's senior market analyst of automotive insights. 

"Now that year-over-year figures are more comparable, annual gains will level out and remain between 7 to 10 percent through year-end,” he continued.

And KBB was not the only ones predicting impressive sales this month, compared to the same period last year.

TrueCar.com released its monthly auto sales forecasts on Wednesday, as well. On the used side of the market, TrueCar officials estimated sales to come in at 3.42 million units, up 5.8 percent from September 2011 and down 11.7 percent from August 2012. 

TrueCar also revealed their predictions for new sales. Its analysts are expecting new light-vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) to be 1.16 million units, up 10.5 percent from September 2011 and down 9.5 percent from August 2012 (on an unadjusted basis).

TrueCar’s predictions translate to a SAAR of 14.6 million new-car sales, up from 13.1 million in September 2011 and up from 14.5 million in August 2012.

The ratio of new-to-used is estimated to be 1:3 for September 2012, the site shared.

"The SAAR range so far this year has been one of the tightest in the recent history, ranging in-between 13.8 and 15.1 million," said Jesse Toprak, vice president of market intelligence at TrueCar. "Even though the lack of big movements in car sales makes for less attractive headlines, the stable growth in sales is a positive for the industry. The stability allows for the right production adjustments and price optimization, resulting in improved profitability."

KBB also explained that “healthy” consumer demand will continue to drive industry sales growth and is expected to account for nearly 85 percent of total sales volume in September. 

"The average vehicle on the road today is approximately 11 years old.  Those consumers that have delayed their purchase of a new vehicle during the past several years due to economic reasons are finally making the decision to trade-up to something new," said Gutierrez. 

"As a vehicle ages beyond 10 years old, or has more than 100,000 miles on the odometer, rising maintenance costs and deteriorating reliability can become a serious headache.  Drivers of older vehicles are keenly aware of this fact and many are opting to take advantage of the near zero percent finance offers on today's more reliable and fuel-efficient vehicles to achieve peace of mind,” he further explained.

Most Popular Units as Fall Gets Underway

For this month, as consumers prepare for colder weather, KBB expects pickup truck sales to be strong as domestic manufacturers introduce sales events. 

For example, the 2012 Chevrolet Silverado is available for zero percent for 60 months or with as much as $3,500 in consumer cash; the 2012 Ford F-150 can be purchased with up to $5,500 in cash back; and the Ram 1500 is available with up to $4,000 in rebates, the site shared.

“Kelley Blue Book believes these deals, coupled with high inventory levels, will help increase truck share by as much as a full percentage point during the month,” officials explained.

Furthermore, market share of midsize and compact sedans should remain firm at 16.7 percent and 14.9 percent, respectively, due to high gas prices, the site noted.

“The all-new Nissan Altima, Chevrolet Malibu, Ford Fusion and Honda Accord, each boasting better than 35 mpg on the highway, are arriving now and should catch the consumer's attention,” they concluded.

Most-Researched Rides

Moving along, KBB also looked at which units generated the most interest on its website from Aug. 25 to Sept. 25.

Notching the top spot on both the new and used list of Kbb.com’s 25 most researched vehicles was Honda.

For the No. 1 researched new vehicle, the Honda CR-V took the spot. For used, the Honda Accord and Honda Civic came in at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively.

Another Japanese OEM followed. Taking the No. 2 spot on the new-car side was the Toyota Camry, which was No. 3 on the used list.

For the complete lists or most researched vehicles on Kbb.com this past month, see below: