Vehicles in operation at record high; later-model to climb
There are more vehicles on U.S. roads today than ever before. And later-model vehicles should have nice lift in volume over the next few years, according to a report from IHS Markit.
The analysis indicates that there are more than 264 million registrations for light vehicles in operation in the U.S. Not only is this a record sum, the year-over-year growth (2.4 percent or 6.2 million units) is the highest it has been since IHS began monitoring the data.
The prior record increase was 2.1 percent in 2015.
The average age of a vehicle in operation is 11.6 years, a modest increase from 2015, IHS said.
”Quality of new vehicles continues to be a key driver of the rising average vehicle age over time,” Mark Seng, director, global automotive aftermarket practice at IHS Markit, said in a news release.
“The recession created an acceleration beyond its traditional rate due to the nearly 40 percent drop in new vehicle sales in 2008-2009,” he said. “In the last couple of years, however, average age is returning to a more traditional rate of increase.”
And with more cars in operation, that means more opportunity for the aftermarket, including components manufacturing, repair and service.
“Increasing numbers of vehicles on the road builds a new business pipeline for the aftermarket,” Seng said. “A larger fleet means more vehicles that will need repair work and service in the future.”
Ownership length up
As the previous statistics might indicate, folks are keeping their cars longer. At the end of 2015, the average ownership length was 79.3 months (up 1.5 months year-over-year) and 66 months for used vehicles.
IHS said both are up “significantly” from a decade ago.
As far as scrappage, rates in 2015 were steady with 2014, the company said. A little more than 11 million vehicles were taken off the road last year. The all-time high was 14 million-plus vehicles scrapped in 2012.
Later-model volume to climb; oldest bracket to show most growth
In what is likely good news for dealers in the certified pre-owned space, IHS said that by 2021, there will be 16 percent more vehicles in the zero- to 5-year-old bracket.
There is likely to be 5-percent growth in volume of units from 6 to 11 years old during the same time frame, and 10-percent growth in volume for vehicles 12 years or older.
But the most rapid acceleration? Older cars. Look for 30-percent growth in volume of vehicles 16 years or older.
IHS is also expecting volume of cars that are older than 25 to eclipse 20 million units in 2021.