When the final results are tallied, look for October’s used-car sales market to be down double-digits from a year ago, but steady with September.

In a forecast released Friday, TrueCar projected slightly less than 3 million used-car sales for October, which would be a 13% year-over-year decrease and static month-over-month.

Through nine months of the year, there were slightly less than 19.9 million total used-vehicle sales between franchised and independent dealers, according to ADESA US Analytical Services analysis of data from NADA.

That’s down 12.6% from the same period of 2021, and off 3.2% from the first nine months of 2020. Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, used retail sales are down 11.2% through nine months, the ADESA analysis indicates in the latest Kontos Kommentary report from chief economist Tom Kontos.

Certified pre-owned sales through nine months are at 1.84 million, the ADESA report said, citing Motor Intelligence data.

That’s a 15.1% year-over-year decline and is off 6.3% from 2020 and 12.8% from 2019.

“Lack of affordability and availability are hampering used-vehicle retail sales, leaving dealers with more inventories, and prompting them to be more selective in their inventory sourcing,” Kontos said in the report. “This is also evidenced by lower conversion rates at auction.”

Sharing more numbers from the ADESA report, franchise dealers have moved 10.04 million used vehicles through nine months, a 13.5% year-over-year decrease. Independents have moved 9.86 million, an 11.6% decrease.

Used-vehicle sales fell 9.2% year-over-year in September and are trending toward a full-year tally more than 12% softer than that of 2021, according to Cox Automotive.

“Rising interest rates are likely taking potential buyers out of the used vehicle market,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said in a mid-October report. “However, limited supply in the new market is likely pushing some of these shoppers into the used market.

“For the rest of this year, it is expected that sales of used vehicles will face increasing headwinds as rising interest rates lift monthly payments, and new vehicle inventory continues to recover.”