In wholesale & retail, used-car price changes offering much-needed relief
For dealers looking to obtain used-car inventory at lower prices than they did in 2022, the year appears off to a good start.
And weary consumers scouring dealer lots for good pre-owned car deals after two years of wildly high prices are starting to find some relief, as well.
Though up 1.5% from December, wholesale vehicle prices through the first half of January are down 13.7% compared to the full month of January 2022, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality.
That’s according to the mid-month reading of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which came in at 222.5.
An analysis around the index from parent company Cox Automotive indicates that most of the increase so far this month from December is due to seasonal adjustment.
Without the adjustments, the index was up 0.3% month-over-month and fell 12.1% from January 2022, Cox said.
“Over the last two weeks, Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices have moved in opposite directions but left prices about where they would typically be in mid-January …” the company said in the analysis.
Analysts later added: “The trend that started in October continued into 2023, with all eight major market segments seeing seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year-over-year in the first half of January.”
On the retail side of the used-car market, iSeeCars.com noticed a similar slowdown in prices as 2022 closed..
The average retail price of used cars ages 1 to 5 in December was $33,582, according to iSeeCars, a 3.0% drop from December 2021. Last month marked the second month in a row that prices eased on a year-over-year basis, the company said.
Following a 7.8% year-over-year hike in September and a 3.6% rise in October, used-car prices fell 2.1% in November – which iSeeCars said was the first year-over-year decline in 2022.
“Over the next 2-3 months we should get a sense of how far and how fast prices will drop, but the trend is undeniable at this point,” iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer said in a report released Tuesday.
Earlier in the report, Brauer emphasizes while that “normal” conditions aren’t likely any time soon, this more than two-year stretch of high prices should wind down.
“It was easy to predict, given the macroeconomic factors we’ve seen over the past six months,” he said. “With everything from inflation to interest rates hitting peak numbers there was no way the upward pressure on car values could continue.
“The next big question is: how far and how fast will car prices fall?”
And while overall used-car prices were up 0.6% in December compared to where they were in September, iSeeCars spotted several models with double-digit-percentage declines during this time frame: Tesla Model 3 (down 16.8%), Nissan Kicks (down 11.9%), Ford Mustang (down 11.5%) and the Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid (down 11%).
“The pricing shifts since September show which models have taken the biggest hit in recent months, such as the Tesla Model 3 losing nearly 17 percent of its value, and the Nissan Kicks, Ford Mustang, and Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid all down over 10 percent,” said Brauer.