Wholesale vehicle price softening continues
Autumn continues to bring some pricing relief to the auction lanes, with at least two indices hitting their lowest levels in more than a year.
After a 2.2% month-over-month and 10.6% year-over-year decline (when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality), the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was at its lowest level in 14 months.
That’s according to parent company Cox Automotive, whose data indicates the 200.0 index reading for October marked the lowest level since August 2021.
On an adjusted basis, the index was down 2.1% month-over-month and 9.3% year-over-year.
Manheim’s used-vehicle price index has now fallen sequentially for five straight months. It has dropped from prior-year levels for two straight months, according to the data.
Breaking it down by vehicle segment, prices for each of the eight included in Cox’s data set fell from October 2021.
In a similar analysis, Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention index has now fallen sequentially for four straight months. October’s reading of 174.3 was down 1.2% from September, but perhaps more significantly, it was off 3.3% from October 2021: the first year-over-year decrease in the Black Book index so far this year.
It was also the lowest reading for that index in 13 months.
The September/October edition of the Kontos Kommentary, released on Oct. 28, pointed to some of this softening.
“Average wholesale used-vehicle prices in September were down for the fourth month in a row from their spring/tax-refund seasonal peaks in May, but at a more gradual pace than that seen in the three prior months,” ADESA chief economist Tom Kontos, who authors the report, said in its summary.
“Hurricane Ian possibly had a moderating effect on wholesale price deterioration, due to the loss of used vehicle supply and the resulting replacement demand the storm generated,” Kontos said. “This moderating trend continued into October.
“Lack of affordability and availability are hampering used vehicle retail sales, leaving dealers with more inventories, and prompting them to be more selective in their inventory sourcing. This is also evidenced by lower conversion rates at auction.”