GAINESVILLE, Ga. -

Along with his monthly take on the specialty market, Black Book’s Ricky Beggs wondered what last week’s average daily adjustment level meant since it was the highest amount in 13 weeks.

Black Book’s editors adjusted 2,437 vehicles daily a week ago, prompting Beggs to ask a question during his weekly online video series, “Beggs on the Used Car Market.”

Beggs began with, “The market required a higher number of vehicles to be adjusted this past week. Was this due to the return to the market by many buyers and sellers after the Thanksgiving break, or a sign of the market making a typical December turn?

“After analyzing the data and seeing the resulting numbers, I believe there was a little of both,” he responded.

Beggs explained the percentage of adjustments this past week with increasing values was a solid 29 percent when compared to the 17-percent level Black Book found a week earlier.

“An interesting note was the dollar increase of the positive adjustments that was just over half of the amount the week before at $78,” Beggs highlighted.

“At the same time the dollar amount of the declining adjustments was almost identical to the previous week at $148.

With the overall change of cars and trucks being a larger decline week over week, Black Book determined nine of the 10 car segments it tracks dropped more than the previous week.

While still dipping $34, editors found that decrease by entry level cars wasn’t as great as the previous week when the segment sunk by $69 during Thanksgiving.

Black Book indicated trucks reacted the same way as the compact SUVs and the full-size crossovers at $23 and $10, respectively, declined less than the previous week.

Editors discovered segments that required the largest adjustments this past week were the luxury SUVs (down $74) and full-size SUVs (down $115).

“I was somewhat surprised with these levels of the not the most fuel efficient models considering the steadily declining gas prices we are currently seeing,” Beggs surmised.

He used the remainder of his weekly commentary to look ahead to next year.

“Over the past few weeks many comments have been made to us speculating the next moves in the market prior to the arrival of 2012,” Beggs shared.

“Some were thinking the prices had already bottomed out while others were prepared to hold out a little longer to buy some bargains during the last few weeks of the year,” he continued. “The most recent comments see this past week with improvement over the shortened holiday week.

“With the reporting of the November new car sales levels, I see the less than aggressive pricing levels being driven with more new car trades being available, thus softening the need for acquiring additional used inventory from the auction lanes,” Beggs projected.

"As December continues, we will be on the lanes watching for the latest movement in the market and reporting these changes every day,” he insisted.

Specialty Market: Seasonal Reactions Abound

Turning next to the specialty market, Beggs again began his analysis by asking a question.

Beggs wondered, “Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market?”

He continued with, “The four specialty markets we report have kept the editors extremely busy meeting the publication deadlines after detailed analysis of the auction data. During this time of the year one market may be extremely strong while another is extremely seasonal with definite trends to reflect this seasonality.”

Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks and Commercial Trailers

Black Book admitted it’s constantly discussing how clean-condition used late-model trucks, mostly the class 8 road tractors, regional trucks and day cabs, will bring high values if dealers can find them. Editors said these models continue to follow this path as the quantities are still limited.

“There is another trend we have been watching that seems to have picked up a little steam at some late November sales,” Beggs mentioned.

“The $10,000 to $15,000 trucks are pretty much in the sweet spot for check writers,” he noticed. "For buyers with loans that have 50-percent equity into the loan, they are eliminating major repairs as a factor to the finance source.”

Black Book found one specific model that has showed this trend for a couple of months is the Model CH Mack Day Cab.

“We have raised this truck for December $500 to $1,000 for several of the older model years,” Beggs explained.

“Right at the end of November we noticed some older road tractors bringing $1000 to $1,200 more than they have been selling for,” he recalled. “True enough, some of these are being purchased by end users, but we have seen about half of them going to dealers as well.

“We will keep an eye on this trend and it will be reflected in value changes next month if this pattern continues,” Beggs went on to say. “As we mentioned last month, we pretty much think the numbers have gone about as high as they will go for the majority of the medium duty and heavy duty trucks, but there seems to be a couple of categories that are still going up a little bit more.”

Black Book described industry rumors are percolating that 2011 Class 8 production may crest at 250,000 units.

“That would be good news based on production performance for the past few years,” Beggs asserted.

“I think if this pace continues through the first quarter that it will set up consistent used truck values through the spring,” he continued.

“Bottom line, very few trucks will go down much if any. We will do our best to keep an eye on the inner pulse of the market and report what we see,” Beggs added.

Recreational Vehicles

Black Book acknowledged Old Man Winter has finally arrived when it comes to this speciality segment.

“And most of the RVs that are going to be put away until spring have already have been winterized and packed away,” Beggs indicated.

“If not, you still might have time to protect them from freezing conditions and Ethanol gas damage, but you’d better get on it in a hurry,” he recommended.

Black Book found activity at large wholesale RV auctions has started its seasonal decline and prices are also beginning to drop. Editors determined wholesale used motor home prices have declined by an average of $3,698 this month, down to $38,575, which is off nearly 9 percent from last month.

“This is the lowest prices have been this year,” Beggs pointed out.

Editors also mentioned towables, including travel trailers, fifth wheels, and camping trailers, declined a more modest $481 to $9,403, which works out to an almost 5-percent decline.

“This is also the lowest average wholesale price of the year,” Beggs reiterated

“Values generally do not begin to inch upwards again until after the first of the year,” he explained. “Although there is no guarantee that this coming year will follow the historical patterns, you should at least be aware of them when making your RV buying and selling decisions.

“If storage and carrying costs are not a major issue for you, the next couple of months might be the right time to stock up for spring,” Beggs suggested. “If cash flow and storage expense are major concerns for you, you may want to wait a little longer before buying, while still trying to complete your purchases before the market begins its seasonal uptick.”

Black Book also just returned from the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association’s national show in Louisville, Ky., last week.

“It was a very upbeat atmosphere from dealers and manufacturers. The crowd also seemed larger than last year,” Beggs indicated.

Collectible Cars

Beggs admitted the collectible market can truly be “heart throbbing.” He pointed out a little more than a month from now will be annual collector car auctions in Scottsdale, Ariz.

“These sales really are a bellwether of what the coming year will look like, so it is wise not to underestimate their importance,” Beggs cautioned.

“Everyone knows about heavyweights Barrett-Jackson, Russo and Steele and RM, but there are several other smaller auctions that provide venues for a whole range of vehicles, from lower end ‘beginner collector’ cars to specialized exotic sales,” he continued.

“Be sure to acquaint yourselves with all of the various opportunities available to you out in the desert this year,” Beggs added.

Black Book indicated the collectible market has been showing signs of strength. Editors said exotics models such as Ferraris, Lamborghinis, Maseratis and Aston Martins are up the most at nearly 3 percent.

Editors added the ever popular muscle car segment is up about a 0.5 percent, and vintage pickups are up slightly at about 0.1 percent.

Motorcycles and Powersports Units

As the year winds to a close and the holidays approach, Black Book admitted the powersports market is in a major winter slowdown.

Black Book editors reported activity at the auctions continues to be light. Prices are still soft with lower than normal volumes of units being offered for sale.

“Much of the reduction in volume is a function of reduced new unit sales since the recession started in late 2008,” Beggs explained.

“The remaining drop in auction volume is due to having significantly fewer repossessions,” he added. “The loans originated over the past two years of this struggling economy were solid loans in both borrower credit strength and collateral levels. Where normally we would expect to see higher prices when inventory is scarce, right now instead, we are seeing lower than normal pricing as we head into winter.”

Black Book mentioned snowmobiles are up once again this month, but reflecting the general softness of the market as a whole, are up less than last month, averaging only a 1 percent climb.

“Those of you in the colder parts of the country may already be seeing your first snows, and regionally higher prices than in the guide this month,” Beggs pointed out.

“As we state frequently, the prices we report are national averages and you need to adjust for your local market depending on factors like geography, local interests, economic conditions and weather when deciding how much to pay for a particular unit,” he emphasized.

Editors determined personal watercraft and jet boats are down significantly with decreases ranging from 3 to 6 percent depending on the type of unit and age.

Black Book mentioned three segments that showed some pricing strength last month — ATVs, utility vehicles and sport bikes — are also down this month.

“On a positive note, now is the time of year that many dealers start to stock up on inventory in anticipation of spring motorcycle sales when warm weather returns,” Beggs noted.

“This normally leads to rising wholesale prices over the next few months,” he continued. “Stay tuned and we will let you know if/and when that occurs and by how much prices change going forward.

After wrapping up his specialty market look, Beggs closed with a familiar request.

“We welcome your insight and comments. When you see any of the editors or Black Book survey personnel at the auctions, stop us and say hello,” he declared.

Beggs’ videos can be viewed here.