Beggs Not Expecting 2008 Repeat, Although Gas Keeps Moving Higher
As pump prices moved higher again last week, Black Book’s Ricky Beggs remains confident the wholesale market isn’t about to hit a vehicle-price patch similar to what happened in 2008 when gas soared above $4 per gallon on average.
Still, Beggs acknowledged gas prices continue to climb, as this past week they crept up another 2 cents to a national average of $3.74 per gallon.
“The comments and ultimate effects on the market do not follow the traditional expected pattern,” Beggs stated during his latest online video analysis, “Beggs on the Used Car Market.”
Beggs mentioned the topic of gas prices was brought up numerous times during the International Automotive Remarketers Alliance Summer Roundtable last week.
“The consensus is that even though prices continue to climb, and is now 16 cents higher than one year ago, the steady slope up is smoother right now while the current level is still well below the record $4.11 of 2008 and also below that mental mark of $4,” Beggs explained.
“We are not at a level that is causing an overreaction or major change in current buying habits and car selection on the retail side,” he added.
Beggs also touched on other highlights of IARA’s gathering.
“In attendance were some of the industry’s leading vehicle consignors and remarketers, vendors who support those remarketers, as well as many auction personnel,” Beggs shared. “This is a time where industry issues are addressed through expert presentations, panel discussions and very interactive group roundtables.
“Education and networking are both at the forefront with transportation and titling issues addressed this past week to help the remarketers with existing challenges in their daily business efforts,” he continued. “Keynote addresses focusing on social media, corporate positioning and non-traditional customer relations kept everyone on the edge of their seats. This was coming from a former Harley Davidson communication spokesperson who was in the middle of Harley’s revival as a motor company with tremendous brand strength today.”
While long-range issue were discussed at the IARA, Beggs reiterated that Black Book’s editors and survey personnel continued their auction attendance gathering current market data and insight from all across the country.
Black Book editors adjusted prices on a little less than 2,000 vehicles per day last week, and the overall average price decline for cars and trucks settled at $69 and $55, respectively.
Editors discovered the car price decline was the largest since Oct. 28. And trucks posted their highest average drop in five weeks.
“At the same time, the 21 percent of adjustments that were increases was the highest increasing percent over the past seven weeks,” Beggs pointed out, “so if something is in more positive demand and thus value, it was reflected in a smaller increase.”
Taking a deeper look at cars, Black Book noticed that prices for both prestige luxury cars and premium sporty cars both sunk by more than $100, and prices for near luxury cars were not far behind, dropping by $98.
Even within one of the more fuel-efficient segments, entry mid-size cars, prices slipped by $98 or 1.19 percent for the week, according to editors.
However, Beggs indicated prices for entry level cars “reacted in a steadier manner this past week,” as those prices softened by just $14 or 0.20 percent.
On the truck, van and utility side of the market, Black Book noticed prices for full-size SUVs took the largest turn south, dropping $118 for the week.
Prices for other truck segments softening by significant levels included full-size crossovers (down $103) and luxury SUVs (down $85).
Beggs pointed out that “even though vacation season is basically over” minivan models showed the most price stability as cargo versions ticked just $7 lower while passenger versions dipped by just $10.
A year ago, Black Book recapped that the average truck segment change was a price decline of $42 with full-size crossovers leading the way with a $140 drop.
Beggs made one other point as he closed his latest analysis.
“As new-car sales continue the increases of 2012 over 2011 volumes, much of the conversation at the IARA roundtable was regarding the slightly increasing used supplies in the wholesale market,” he noted.
“Although not all will end up at the auctions, either physical or online, we should continue to see overall softening in used values because of the additional choices in the market,” Beggs projected. “We’ll be here reporting these changes as they occur. We truly appreciate your interest and valued business. Have a great week.”
Beggs’ video can be viewed below.