GAINESVILLE, Ga. -

Earlier this week, NADA Used Car Guide predicted that luxury used-vehicle prices would increase nearly 2 percent this year.

In talking with Auto Remarketing on Thursday afternoon, Black Book managing editor Ricky Beggs offered a different perspective.

He believes luxury used-vehicle prices will actually decrease significantly.

In fact, Black Book emphasized data showing used prices for these luxury units have dropped 2 percent in the last three months and 13.5 percent year-over-year. Beggs told Auto Remarketing he expects the full-year decline to be similar to that year-over-year figure.

“It should continue that same pattern,” he said.

So how did Beggs arrive at this conclusion? He explained his take to Auto Remarketing.

“As far as the luxury level segment is concerned, we’ve been tracking those numbers all along and really have not seen a lot of volatility up-and-down in that segment,” Beggs noted. “We’ve seen more of a steady decline throughout the last month, the last three months, the last year … we’re not seeing a lot of up and down and differences, because of various things in the industry.”

On the opposite end of the spectrum, entry-level cars and compact cars have been “all over the board,” Beggs said, and are much more prone to be influenced by factors like gas prices.

“But this segment of luxury cars has been more consistent in steady decline throughout the year,” Beggs noted. “Nothing that says this segment is not in demand or there is not an interest in it, but just more of a steady decline.”

So why does the used luxury class act this way?

“I look at the volumes of vehicles there, and sure, that segment went down in volume over the last couple of years in relation to what the whole industry did,” Beggs emphasized. “But as far as the volume returning into market in a consistent manner, that segment of the industry — especially the non-domestic side of that industry — really didn’t have the fluctuation where leasing just totally stopped.

“The funding for that type car, especially non-domestics, was still there and they continued to lease cars,” he continued. “Sure the volume was down a little bit in relation to the whole industry, but it didn’t’ stop like it did on some of the product lines and some of the manufacturers.”

“So, as far as vehicles coming back into the marketplace, I don’t see a real volatility of lack of supply that’s going to help that segment maintain values better than anything else out there going forward throughout the rest of the year,” Beggs added.

In a few points sent to Auto Remarketing, it was revealed: "Conversations Black Book has had with a couple of the German manufacturers doesn’t show a significant decline in off-lease numbers between now and the end of the year. Yes, the off-lease returns for the industry will bottom out in December but the funding for BMW, Mercedes, Audi didn’t dry up in 2008 & 2009 like the more volume sources did."

Touching on the economy, the notes emphasize: "The economy is still not one that anyone would consider a ‘healthy’ economy. If anything, there are signs pointing to another slight slowdown. Overall the economy is not so great that multitudes of people are making so much money in their stock portfolio and houses to go and create demand in the luxury segments."

Beggs went on to suggest that the luxury segment is not as heavily influenced by seasonality. Movements are more consistent throughout the year, Beggs added.

“And I think part of that is that there are fewer of these that are put in some sort of fleet and daily rental. So I think they get the fluctuation less than what some of the other segments (experience), because of that kind of penetration when those do come back into the marketplace,” he stated.

Lastly, when asked about NADA Used Car Guide’s expectation for a 2.9-percent increase in overall used-vehicle prices for 2012, Beggs said that "we are not seeing increasing prices."