TransUnion Not Alarmed by Q2 Delinquency Uptick
Auto delinquencies rose slightly in the second quarter because there’s more paper on the streets nowadays, but TransUnion analysts don’t think the trends are necessarily bad for the industry.
According to TransUnion's Industry Insights Report released on Tuesday, the auto loan delinquency rate — the ratio of borrowers 60 days or more delinquent on their vehicle installment contracts — increased to 0.95 percent in Q2, up from 0.87 percent a year earlier.
However, TransUnion pointed out that auto delinquencies dropped on a quarterly basis from 1.00 percent in the first quarter of this year.
TransUnion automotive vice president Peter Turek — part of the large contingent of industry experts who will be on hand at Used Car Week — explained that the latest delinquency rate remains below the Q2 average of 1.05 percent observed between 2007 and 2014.
Since 2007, Turek noted, the auto loan delinquency rate has reached as high as 1.59 percent (in Q4 2008),while its low was observed in Q2 2012 at 0.86 percent.
"Auto lending remains similar to what we have observed during the last several quarters," said Turek, who will be part of a panel session titled, “The Next Big Thing,” during the SubPrime Forum that runs from Nov. 10 through Nov. 12.
"Delinquency rates remain relatively low while auto loan balances keep rising — both metrics aided by increasing auto loan originations,” he continued.
"In fact, there are 4 million more auto loan accounts in the marketplace than we observed just last year. This means with more auto loans in the marketplace and a delinquency rate ticking higher, we now have several thousand more delinquent accounts than at the midpoint of 2013,” Turek went on to say.
TransUnion indicated that all but six states experienced an increase in their auto loan delinquency rates between Q2 of last year and Q2 of this year. The largest delinquency increases occurred in Alaska, Michigan, Montana and Nebraska.
The largest declines occurred in Hawaii, South Dakota and Oregon.
TransUnion's analysis also found that auto loan delinquency rates increased across all age groups.
Age Range | Q2 2013 | Q2 2014 | Percent Change |
Under 30 | 1.07% | 1.28% | 19.09% |
30-39 | 1.13% | 1.29% | 13.70% |
40-49 | 1.02% | 1.15% | 12.77% |
50-59 | 0.70% | 0.78% | 10.87% |
60+ | 0.47% | 0.53% | 11.65% |
Used Car Week has two events dedicated to topics such as delinquencies. Along with the SubPrime Forum, the Re3 Conference will highlight trends in the repossession, recovery and remarketing departments. All of the events will take place at the Red Rock Casino, Resort and Spa in Las Vegas.
For more details and the opportunity to take advantage of discounted registrations that last through Oct. 10, go to www.usedcarweek.biz.