Kontos: Modest Slowdown in Wholesale Prices, Fuel Costs Play Big Role
As expected for the start of 2012, wholesale prices declined moderately in February, falling less than 2 percent from the year-ago period. The drop-off, though, was also strongly influenced by the decline in truck prices amid high gas prices, in addition to the seasonality that impacted used pricing, according to the latest report from ADESA Analytical Services.
Specifically, average wholesale prices dipped 1.8 percent year-over-year at $9,847. The month-over-month decline was more modest at 0.6 percent.
“However, rising fuel prices played a major role in this pattern, as truck prices fell while car prices rose during the month,” explained ADESA’s Tom Kontos.
In fact, average car prices ($9,136) were up 1.2 percent year-over-year and climbed 0.7 percent month-over-month. Meanwhile, truck prices ($10,639) fell 4.6 percent from February 2011 and declined 2 percent from January.
“Wholesale prices in January and February have performed as anticipated and described in previous commentaries: namely, they are showing relative strength during the tax-refund season, but modest softening relative to peak levels last spring,” Kontos noted.
Outside of these seasonal/cyclical elements influencing wholesale movements, Kontos noted two other factors playing a role in pricing trends: increased gas prices and the fact that new-vehicle supply is more plentiful compared to last year (amid the earthquake/tsunami in Japan).
To see more of Kontos’ take on the tsunami’s impact in the wholesale arena, see the latest installment in Auto Remarketing’s series on the wide-ranging effects of the tsunami.
Segment Trends
Breaking down the vehicle segments in more detail, the car category showing the greatest year-over-year increase was the sporty car segment (up 5 percent).
All five car segments were up month-over-month, and the two that decreased year-over-year were the full-size car class (down 7.7 percent) and the luxury car segment (down 1.3 percent).
On the truck side of the market, two of the eight segments were up year-over-year: full-size vans, which climbed 5.4 percent, and compact pickups (up 2.1 percent).
Likewise, just two increased sequentially: mini SUVs (up 0.1 percent) and compact pickups (up 1.1 percent).
Looking at seller groups, Kontos noted that “price strength was also generally exhibited.”
Wholesale prices for manufacturers were up 5.7 percent sequentially and 4.8 percent from February 2011, “reflecting continued tight supplies of late-model used vehicles,” he shared.
For fleet/lease consignors, prices were up 2 percent from January and 0.1 percent from February 2012. There was a 1-percent sequential downturn and a 2.1-percent year-over-year hike for dealer consignors.