CARY, N.C. -

That certified pre-owned shopper on a dealership lot may be willing to shift over to the new-car department.

The number of people shopping for CPO vehicles is 25% higher than it was three years ago, and many of them haven’t ruled out buying new, according to a Shopper Trends Snapshot from Cox Automotive.

But whether or not a CPO shopper will consider looking at a new vehicle too may depend on the category, segment and/or model he or she is browsing.

Sixty-eight percent of overall CPO intenders said they are open to buying a new vehicle, Cox Automotive said, and the rate is even higher (73%) among luxury shoppers.

Certainly, the price difference can be a selling point for CPO, but many certified pre-owned shoppers are allocating enough money to perhaps go new.

The gap between CPO and new-vehicle prices has remained steady the last four years (coming in between 33% and 38%, according to the report).  This year, the gap is 35%, with the average CPO list price at $27,737 and the average new-vehicle transaction price at $37,325, Cox said.

Among all CPO shoppers, the expected mean price for their next vehicle is $37,000. For luxury CPO shoppers, it is $44,000.

“Although the price gap between new and CPO has hovered at a similar level over the past few years (narrowing slightly this year), CPO shoppers’ planned budget for their next vehicle opens doors for automakers to inject new model options into the consideration process,” Cox Automotive said in the report.

But again, it depends on the segment and vehicle for which the consumer is shopping.

For example, 53.4% of CPO shoppers in the truck category are open to looking at a new-vehicle alternative. But only 30.8% of the luxury car category felt the same.

Meanwhile, 42.3% of non-luxury SUV CPO shoppers were open to new and 39.4% of luxury SUV CPO shoppers would consider new. Thirty-four percent of the non-luxury car category was open to new vehicles.

“In taking a closer look at model-level cross-shopping, there are varying degrees of CPO to new alternate version cross-consideration. On average, CPO truck shoppers are more likely to shop the new alternative, whereas CPO sedan shoppers are less likely to shop the new model version,” Cox said.

And even within vehicle categories, there can be quite a range of consideration for new, based on the model or segment in question.

For example, in the luxury SUV category, 67% of Land Rover Range Rover Velar CPO shoppers were open to new (the highest listed in that category). But just 21% of the Lincoln MKC and BMW X1 felt the same (the lowest listed in that category). 

Within the luxury SUV segments, luxury compact SUVs were at 36.8%, luxury midsize SUVs were at 40.7% and luxury full-size SUVs were at 43.3%

Among non-luxury SUVs, the new-vehicle consideration was highest for Ford Expedition Max CPO shoppers (75%), with the lowest being the Fiat 500X (10%).

As far as the segments, consideration was at  35.1% for subcompact SUVs, 35.4% for compact SUVs, 47.2% for midsize SUVs and 56.9% for full-size SUVs.

Looking at luxury cars, the Volvo S90 and Infiniti Q60 had the highest listed new-vehicle consideration among CPO shoppers (48%), while the Audi A3 was lowest listed at 20%.

The category average was 31%. Among the segments, entry-level luxury cars were at 28.1%, midsize luxury cars were at 32.6% and luxury full-size cars were at 33%.

In the non-luxury car category, 72% of Kia Stinger CPO shoppers were open to new, topping the list, while at the other end, just 19% of Nissan Sentra certified pre-owned shoppers were. The category average was 34%.

By segment, subcompact cars were at 29.2%, compact cars were at 30.3%, midsize cars were at 34.6% and full-size cars came in at 48.5%.

For trucks, the Ford F-250 topped the list (68%), while the GMC Canyon (43%) was at the bottom. The category average was 53%. By segment, midsize trucks were at 48.2%, light-duty trucks were at 52.5% and heavy-duty trucks were at 57.4%.

CPO sales expected to hit another record

There are likely to be 2.75 million certified pre-owned sales in 2019, according to Cox Automotive, which would beat last year’s 2.7 million sales and mark the ninth consecutive record year.

There were 2.1 million certified sales through the first three quarters of the year, which outpaces year-ago figures by 2.4%, Cox said.

September was a bit slow (down 4% from September 2018 with 204,946 units sold), but third-quarter CPO sales climbed 4.7%.

“Favorable supply of vehicles entering the market will continue to support used retail sales,” Cox said in a Data Point report. “In 2019, Cox Automotive is estimating 4.1 million off-lease vehicles will return to the market, a peak in off-lease numbers. Next year off-lease supply is forecast to equal the 2019 record.”