McLEAN, Va. -

The next few years will likely see a modest uptick in used-vehicle depreciation rates, but thanks to factors like low supplies of late-model units — among other reasons — the projected rate is expected to be slower compared to the more dramatic depreciation witnessed in years past.

That’s the word from NADA Used Car Guide, which said the market will soon enter “a period of used-price stability that hasn’t been seen in over a decade.”

Recent years have proven volatile for used-car depreciation, analysts indicated.

For instance, used prices jumped nearly 27 percent in 2008, but it fell more than 11 percent the following year, NADA Used Car Guide explained.

But stability should be on the horizon.

NADA Used Car Guide said in its report — titled “Volatility in Used Vehicle Depreciation: Historical Trends & Future Outlook” — that there will likely be a moderate increase in used depreciation during the next few years. However, the depreciation will continue to be “historically low,” the report noted.

Breaking down some of the figures, NADA anticipates the depreciation on a $12,000 used vehicle in 2012 will be 15.7 percent, or $1,884, on average. This would be fairly static (up 0.6 percent or $72) from 2011.

NADA is forecasting the 2014 depreciation to climb $108 (or 0.6 percent) from this year’s level and hit $1,992. However, this uptick is light considering the trends spotted from 1996–2008, when the average annual depreciation rate was 21.4 percent.

“The expected low annual rate of depreciation can be attributed in part to the continued decline in the supply of late-model used vehicles, which was caused by a substantial reduction in new-vehicle sales during the economic recession,” said Jonathan Banks, senior analyst with the NADA Used Car Guide.

Additionally, NADA believes used depreciation will also be held down by automakers changing their production strategy; building to demand versus “overproducing new vehicles,” officials noted.

“In an environment where supply exceeds demand, high consumer incentives are necessary to move excess inventory,” Banks added. “This lowers new-vehicle prices which in turn places downward pressure on used-vehicle prices and increases the rate of depreciation.

“Although we expect to see mild growth in incentive spending as manufacturers seek to balance production and market share goals with actual demand, current signs don’t point to a return to pre-recession levels,” Banks said.

Banks also attributed the slowdown in depreciation to OEMs boosting quality, reliability, design and fuel efficiency in their product lines. As such, this improvement lifts demand in today’s late-model units, he emphasized.