NADA Used Car Guide: Used Prices Likely to Dip 3 Percent Next Month
The decline in used-vehicle prices in June isn’t just a blip on the radar. Next month will likely show used prices dropping yet again, according to NADA Used Car Guide.
In fact, all used segments are projected to see price declines during the next few months due to moderate seasonal demand, said NADA UCG senior analyst Jonathan Banks.
As for next month, he said: "NADA’s current forecast points to used-vehicle prices dropping by 3 percent in July."
Breaking it down further, NADA anticipates the used prices in compact and midsize car segments will decline from 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent month-over-month in July.
Looking at June, used prices have dipped 1.6 percent from the previous month.
“Falling gasoline prices will result in greater depreciation of compact and midsize cars, but will help moderate losses for light trucks, such as large pickups and SUVs,” Banks emphasized.
In fact, midsize cars showed the heftiest decline in June (down 2.8 percent), followed by midsize cars (down 2.5 percent). All other segments saw their prices dip between 0.8 percent and 1.4 percent.
Moving along, NADA did urge caution, however, with looking at the projections for used price declines. Its seasonally adjusted forecast for the rest of 2012 shows gains. More specifically, its current used price projection is up 0.7 percent from June through December.
“It’s important to note that used-car prices will remain at historically high levels through the end of the year, despite the expected seasonal softening,” Banks said.
Kontos Examines May Wholesale Trends
Also chiming on used pricing trends was ADESA’s Tom Kontos, whose analysis released late Thursday afternoon noted a downturn in wholesale values for May.
Specifically, ADESA Analytical Services’ look at monthly pricing trends revealed that the average wholesale price in May was $10,271, which was 2.9 percent softer sequentially and 1.8 percent lower than May 2011.
“Reinforcing our longstanding view that used vehicle prices have probably seen their cyclical, as well as seasonal, peaks, average wholesale used vehicle prices were down on a year-over-year and month-over-month basis in May,” Kontos noted.
“Tight supplies may be easing, as dealers take more trades on rising new vehicle sales, and used vehicle prices may be approaching a ceiling relative to new vehicle prices,” he continued. “Thus, there currently appears to be more downward than upward pressure on used vehicle prices.
“Still, used-vehicle supply remains relatively tight and retail used vehicle demand remains strong, so prices are not likely to fall precipitously,” Kontos added.
Stay tuned to Monday’s Auto Remarketing Today for more market analysis from Kontos.
KBB Expects Used Decline
Moving along, Kelley Blue Book has forecasted a decline for used values in coming months, as detailed here in Auto Remarketing.
After they fell 3 percent in May, the firm is calling for declines as strong as 6 percent to 7 percent in the next three months.
“Consumers have realized a new car is only slightly more expensive than buying a one- or two-year-old used car, and this has helped to not only bolster new-car sales, but lessen demand at auction and drive down used-car values,” shared KBB’s Alec Gutierrez.