TrueCar.com: OEMs Struggle to Match July, Cash For Clunkers Sales Performances

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — While Cash for Clunkers might skew the year-over-year comparison, analysts from TrueCar.com believe just one of the top seven automakers will post a greater sales figure in August than July.

That lone manufacturer is Honda, which the site projected this week to have a 1.4-percent sales-performance rise in August over the previous month. The other OEMs included in this report — Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Nissan and Toyota — all are predicted to sustain month-over-month sales declines ranging from 1.3 percent to 6.2 percent.

As a result, TrueCar.com thinks August U.S. light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to come in at 1,015,242 units. This figure is a dip of 3 percent from July. Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 17 percent of the total.

Analysts added the August forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.68 million new-vehicle sales.

Looking at a year-over-year comparison, the declines are even steeper.

Just two OEMs are predicted to have drops below 10 percent this month as compared to August of last year when the government's incentive program sparked a sales surge. Chrysler's year-over-year decline is a modest 2.1 percent, while Ford's is predicted to be 8 percent.

Meanwhile, the site thinks five other manufacturers should see declines of at least 12 percent, topping out with a 29.4-percent fall for both Honda and Toyota.

Without Cash for Clunkers, TrueCar.com believes retail sales are likely to be down 27 percent this month compared to August of 2009.

Despite the declining sales predictions, analysts insist August still should represent a record month for Hyundai in one way. They think the OEM's market share should climb to a record 8.7 percent, up from 8.5 percent in July and 8 percent a year ago.

Although overall sales predictions are trending downward, the site contends incentive levels are on the way back up.

Analysts calculated the industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,864 in August. This amount represents a 1-percent rise from July and a 13-percent jump from this time last year.

The manufacturer with the greatest year-over-year incentive spending increase is Honda. The site pinpointed the spike at 66 percent.

All told, TrueCar.com found that manufacturers are likely to spend more than $2.9 billion in various incentive programs in August.

"The pace of improvement in new-vehicle sales has not been as robust as we predicted at the beginning of the year," explained Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insight for TrueCar.com.

"The auto industry needs a catalyst for a sustainable higher level of sales, without which we will continue to struggle every month to reach 12 million SAAR," Toprak continued. "Low consumer confidence remains as the main counter-force for a healthy recovery."

TrueCar.com is reporting the following about sales, market share and incentive spending in August: