SANTA MONICA, Calif. -

With a projected ratio of two used-vehicle sales for every one new-unit sale this month, TrueCar.com indicated Thursday that March’s used-vehicle sales total is likely to be 2,459,891 — a figure that includes transactions by franchise and independent dealerships as well as private-party sales.

If that estimate holds, the site calculated the total would represent a 37-percent rise from the previous month and a 3-percent uptick from March of last year.

Sliding over to the new-vehicle side, TrueCar.com expects U.S. sales (including fleet) to be 1,190,931 units, up 20 percent from March 2010 and up 12 percent from February on an unadjusted basis.

That sum would place the projected seasonally adjusted annualized rate at 12.5 million new-vehicle sales, down significantly from 13.4 million in February but up from 11.7 million in March of last year.

Site analysts said that March’s retail sales are up 20 percent compared to February and up 11 percent from last March. They also contend fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20 percent of total industry sales this month.

TrueCar.com calculated the industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,432 in March, which represents a drop of 6 percent from February. It’s also off by 13 percent from last March.

“There has been so much uncertainty in the market this month, with the disaster in Japan and the unrest in the Middle East, causing either higher gas prices or potential supply chain problems that have resulted in inventory shortages,” stressed Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insight for TrueCar.com.

“When there is unrest, consumers tend to take a wait and see approach to purchasing big ticket items,” Toprak continued.

Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for March 2011:
 
Unit Sales Forecast
  
Manufacturer
March 2011 Forecast
% Change vs. Feb. 2011
% Change vs. March 2010
  
Chrysler
104,653
10.0%
13.0%
  
Ford
199,712
27.8%
12.1%
  
GM
232,225
12.2%
23.7%
  
Honda
118,423
20.8%
9.4%
  
Hyundai/Kia
94,098
23.3%
21.4%
  
Nissan
111,074
20.2%
16.3%
  
Toyota
173,466
22.3%
-7.2%
  
Industry
1,190,931
19.9%
11.8%
  
 
Market Share Forecast
  
Manufacturer
March 2011 Forecast
February 2011
March 2010
  
Chrysler
8.8%
9.6%
8.7%
  
Ford
16.8%
15.7%
16.7%
  
GM
19.5%
20.8%
17.6%
  
Honda
9.9%
9.9%
10.2%
  
Hyundai/Kia
7.9%
7.7%
7.3%
  
Nissan
9.3%
9.3%
9.0 %
  
Toyota
14.6%
14.3%
17.5%
  
 
Incentive Spending Forecast
  
Manufacturer
March 2011 Incentives
Change vs. Feb. 2011
Change vs. March 2010
Total Spending
  
Chrysler
$3,181
4.2%
-10.8%
$332,926,726
  
Ford
$2,740
7.8%
-9.7%
$547,140,417
  
GM
$3,109
-16.7%
-2.1%
$721,874,571
  
Honda
$1,861
-5.9%
-11.5%
$220,374,131
  
Hyundai/Kia
$1,308
2.9%
-36.2%
$123,105,488
  
Nissan
$2,623
-3.1%
-18.4%
$291,300,353
  
Toyota
$1,772
-11.4%
-22.7%
$307,410,769
  
Industry
$2,432
-5.6%
-13.1%
$2,896,776,923
  

 

After sharing all of the projections, Toprak went on to say, “Incentive spending in March is the lowest since January 2007, which had a negative impact on sales. GM and Toyota led the way, with double digit declines in spending this month.”

TrueCar.com explained that it bases its forecast on actual transaction data.

“The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices and macroeconomic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI),” the site noted.

“TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations,” the site concluded.