Lane watch: Estimated sales rates keep falling
For just the second time this year, Black Book reported the estimated average weekly sales rate dropped to 60%.
Last week’s reading matched the low point of the year that analysts also spotted during the week that actually closed on New Year’s Day.
And according to a chart included in the newest installment of Market Insights released on Tuesday, this estimate hasn’t been this low since last March when the market used much of the first quarter of 2021 climbing from a 50% reading registered at Christmastime 2020.
What about wholesale values? Black Book said they’re continuing to soften, too, as overall prices dropped another 0.89%, according to the report.
The cumulative weekly value decline analysts spotted so far in August adds up to be 3.53%.
On a volume-weighted basis, Black Book indicated overall car segment values decreased 0.77%, as all nine car segments declined last week. But analysts discovered some intriguing car trends after looking deeper into that data.
Black Book noticed that 2-to-8-year-old compact cars reported a price decline of 0.63%, but 0-to-2-year-old compact cars increased by 0.03%.
Analysts also mentioned prices for subcompact cars now have softened for nine consecutive weeks. But Black Book said the average rate of decline (0.22%) for those fuel-sippers has been well below the overall car market drops of 0.62%.
Also of note, Black Book said the near luxury car segment reported the largest value decrease last week at 0.97%.
Meanwhile, Black Book’s volume-weighted data, overall truck segment values decreased another 0.95% last week, coming in at almost the exact same drop as the week earlier, which was 0.96%.
Analysts determined all 13 truck segments dropped in prices, led by compact luxury crossovers/SUVs (down 1.86%) and full-size luxury crossover/SUVs (down 1.51%) segments had the largest declines last week.
“The wholesale market last week stayed consistent, with model year 2022 vehicles trickling in through the lanes at a low rate,” Black Book said. “Newer model years (model year 2019 to 2021) were still being seen with clean conditions and average mileage.
“Compared to weeks prior, large independent dealers popped up in some lanes occasionally, but smaller franchise dealers were still taking advantage of the absence of the large independent dealers and dominated the lanes,” analysts continued. “Sales rates were down along with inventory, as sellers are holding tight on floors. The prices of gas and diesel continued to follow the downward trend.”