CARY, N.C. -

The decline in the certified pre-owned vehicle market escalated in April, but bright spots are emerging, according to data and analysis provided by J.D. Power Valuation Services.

Still, the year-to-date decline in CPO sales after April is more than double what it was just a month earlier, the company said.

There were approximately 128,000 CPO sales in April, a 45.2% year-over-year decline (or 106,000 units), according to J.D. Power.

Through four months of 2020, there have been 745,000 certified sales, which is 166,000 units and 18.2% softer than the year-ago period.

At the end of March, the year-to-date decline was 8.9%, J.D. Power said.

Some OEM programs have been able to slow the declines or even remain ahead. For instance, certified declines were under 10% year-over-year last month for Ram and Mercedes-Benz, compared to the 45.2% overall market decline, according to J.D. Power.

Certified sales for both Ram, which is up 12.7%, and Mercedes (up 1.8%) through four months are ahead of year-ago figures. Same with Subaru (up 1.9%).

And there are other positives in the CPO market.

As reported previously in Auto Remarketing, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles’ head of CPOV Eric Swanson said the program has put a big emphasis on video conference calls and digital retailing, and finished with a 13% share in April, its best ever.

Ron Cooney, who is TCUV sales operations manager at Toyota Motor North America, said via email: “On the sales side, we have seen great week over week and month over month growth since this all started.

“This weekend’s business was a 150% improvement over the first weekend in April,” Cooney said of May’s first weekend. “A couple of our regions saw weekend TCUV sales increases over the same weekend last year. That’s amazing! Each day’s national sales exceeded the daily target for the last several days. So, things are really trending in the right direction.

“Online search and lead data is showing great signs of improvement too. Some KPIs show consumer engagement and interaction nearing pre-epidemic levels,” he said.

Volkswagen, also among the litany of OEM programs ramping up CPO incentives, is offering 0% financing for up to 60 months on certified through the end of next month. Michael Ashton, who is VW’s senior manager of national CPO/used operations, said this incentive began in mid-April and led to a significant uptick in CPO “within days.”

Auto Remarketing’s full report on OEM CPO incentives can be found here.

Still, even with automakers sweetening the pot on certified with enticing incentives “that are in line with new,” the market remains sluggish from a sales perspective, says Ben Bartosch, who is manager of forecast analytics at J.D. Power Valuation Services.

“Dealers may have begun forgoing CPO premiums to move vehicles off lots — Certified sales of CPO eligible units have been steadily declining since February,” Bartosch said in emailed comments, pointing out that CPO penetration rates for mainstream brands are down 11 percentage points to 31%, with luxury brands down 10 points at 57%.

There have also been some struggles in other metrics around CPO, including gross profits.

Last month, gross profits on non-CPO was 3.3% for mainstream brands. That marked the “first time in years” that it was higher than gross profits for CPO (3.0%) on the mainstream side, Bartosch said.

For luxury sales, CPO gross profits were at 1.9% in April, still ahead of non-CPO (1.4%).

The aforementioned gross profits on CPO in April were also down for both mainstream and luxury compared to where they were in March, when it was 5.2% for mainstream and 4.0% for luxury, according to the J.D Power data.

Certified turn rates also struggled in April. For mainstream brands, CPO days-to-turn was 49, up 11 days. Premium brands saw a 15-day increase at 59, according to J.D. Power.

As for a metric J.D. Power dubs “disposer loyalty,” mainstream brands were at 54% (down from 58%). Luxury brands were at 45%, up from 43%.

Acquisition remains a challenge, too.

“Purchased/extended leases and a mostly shutdown wholesale auction market made it extremely difficult for dealers to acquire and certify CPO eligible inventory,” Bartosch said.

 “Direct-to-dealer channels showed relative strength and stability in pricing, which is an ideal channel for dealers to quickly acquire the best of CPO eligible inventory,” he said.

Challenges aside, it’s vital for dealers to acquire certified vehicles.

“With the market beginning to shows signs of a recovery and the implementation of stronger CPO incentives, dealers should be making every effort to secure CPO eligible vehicles given the significantly fewer days-to-turn, higher profit margins, and stronger captive (penetration),” Bartosch said.