Manheim used-car price index eclipses the 200 mark in mid-May
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index appears headed for unprecedented territory.
After the first 15 days of May, the mid-month reading of the index eclipsed the 200 mark, climbing 48% from May 2020 and reaching 202.9.
A look at readings of the index dating back to January 1997 shows no month at or above the 200 mark.
Adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality, wholesale prices in the first half of the month were up 4.55% from April.
In addition to the 48% overall spike, all six of the selective market classes included in Manheim’s data set showed year-over-year price gains of more than 40%.
And pickup prices jumped nearly 70% from a year ago.
It appears all but certain that May will represent the fourth straight month of record highs for the index.
On the retail side of the used-car market, prices are at record highs, as well. According to Thursday's Data Point report from Cox Automotive that cited the company’s analysis of its vAuto Available Inventory data, average listing prices on used cars were at $22,568 at the end of April.
Never before had they eclipsed the $22,000 mark, Cox said.
The used listing price beat year-ago levels by 16% and 2019 levels by 15%. In March, the month closed at $21,343, according to the analysis.
“Given the strong demand from consumers, and the tight supply situation, it seems likely that used-vehicle prices, already at all-time highs, will continue to rise,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive senior economist. “At some point, prices will become too high, and demand will recede. But we are not there yet.”
Certainly not on the supply side.
The number of unsold used vehicles fell from 2.34 million at the end of March to 2.23 million at the end of April, according to Cox/vAuto.
Albeit on par with late-March levels, total supply of used vehicles was 18% softer than 2020 levels. It was down 19% from 2019 levels, the analysis indicated.
At the end of April, used-vehicle days supply was at 35, up slightly from the end of March (33). But Cox Automotive shares some context here: “The Cox Automotive days’ supply is based on the daily sales rate for the most recent 30-day period. During April, the sales pace ticked down, lifting the day’s supply metric. Still, days’ supply of unsold used vehicles remained 57% below 2020 and 23% below 2019 at the opening of May.”
Looking at data from more recent days, the mid-month Manheim index report released Tuesday says the rolling seven-day estimate (via vAuto data) indicates a 38-day supply in the used retail market.
That is “below normal levels,” according to Cox.
The wholesale day supply was pegged at 18, compared to the “normal” reading of 23.